Soy Market Commentary

John WalshGeneral Commentary, Grains


The soy complex, as discussed yesterday is in a bit of a tug o war. The meal has been the price leader for some time. This may be changing. The veg oil market in general has been on fire. This is driven by the palm oil stocks at multi year low’s. The oil share has risen from 30% to approx 33%. The current crush margins are approx 112-115. This will do a couple of things in my opinion. First the elevated margins will push the global crush pace especially in China. This will limit the need for meal imports, rather crush for the profit. In addition, the bean oil off take domestically is a record. This should continue. The current price of meal is showing some reason for demand decline. Not destruction. The veg oil prices potentially have more elastic demand. The current price structure should not hurt demand. The bean carry and demand are both friendly. The question is at what price is demand restricted. In addition, will all the purchases remain on the shipped side of the ledger. Watch the spreads as mentioned yesterday. The meal is struggling while the bean oil continues to make strides.

Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Options –

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.