Soy Market Commentary

John Walsh General Commentary, Grains Leave a Comment


The soybeans were quiet while the products had a large correction. The USDA will release numbers this week indicating changes in the stocks (reductions). The average guess feels that will be the case in both beans and corn. The beans have put on a healthy rally due to Chinese purchases. The question now is whether the purchases will all ship. Or is the market front loaded. This is not an easy question to answer at present. It is my belief that the market may rally into Fridays numbers. Especially if the South American weather remains dry this week. It is my opinion that if this does transpire, producers should look at the rally as a chance to hedge both old and new crop. This is and has been my stance over the last 30 days. It is prudent to look at these prices as high historically if the crops are good and the South American planting moves along. It is duly noted that the recent dryness has been a concern. The old saying however goes. Plant in the dust and the bins will bust. It was my thought that the bean and meal spreads could both inverse in the nearby position. If after Friday this has not transpired, my thoughts will need to be reconsidered in my opinion. Any ideas or suggestions need to be taken with caution. Trade with stops and quantify your risk.

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John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

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