Soy Market Commentary

John Walsh General Commentary, Grains Leave a Comment


The soy complex can be looked at in two separate ways in my humble opinion at present. First, flat price. The beans and meal remain near the recent highs. In reality at high levels relative to the stocks, as the way I see it.  This lofty price is due to the exceptional purchase pace with Chinese buying. The Brazilian is essentially sold out while the Argentinian won’t sell due to currency issues.  It makes more sense for them (ARG) to hold beans as the currency becomes devalued. The second way to assess the soy complex is through the spreads. The meal spreads are inverted, bean spreads are attempting to invert. If the situation in South America remains, and the weather remains dry. The bean spreads could invert, and the meal should continue with a larger inversion. These thoughts are predicated on the weather of course. The bean oil did invert for a short period. The recent trade is showing a carry sell going home.  It is my opinion that perhaps beans have a bit more upside. However, it is not necessary if the spreads perform their function. Quantify your risk.

Trade Suggestion(s)
NA today
Options –

John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.

Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.​

Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.​

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *