The soy has been on a very respectable run. The markets continue to be fueled by the tight domestic carry. This will remain until the new crop is harvested. The global numbers remain ample. That, at present, is not the driving factor. The market remains off the contract highs at present. There are a few considerations here to be mindful of. The bean exports over the last 30 days have lagged. In addition, both bean oil and meal are not overly competitive at present from a price standpoint in the global arena. These facts may mean nothing to the market. However, they are worth noting. The nearby tightness has the May beans 40 over the July. The bean oil spreads have been on a tear. Large inverses are the word there. The meal has been the weakest of late, both flat price and the spreads, as oil share made gains. I have paused here today to rethink and regroup. The size of the market now presents opportunity, but also more risk. The beans may well make a move to prices never seen before. Perhaps, however, a new driver is needed. It is crucial to watch the domestic weather. As well as the Parana River, as the dry weather has caused issues for vessels. This could become very important.
QUANTIFY YOUR RISK.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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