SOY: The soy was quiet overall, the meal was weaker. The market is watching the weather this weekend. The Pro Farmer tour released their estimates and estimate the US soy yield 8/10ths lower than the last USDA number. This is not overly significant in my opinion. However, if the weather remains dry the last week of the month, and the Chinese buy more beans, then we can see further rally. The longer term aspect of the market should be considered. There is no reason to think the global production will fail to grow. It seems likely that Brazil will continue to plant more soy. The main point of this thought is that if the market works to a higher level, that could present an opportunity to make sales.
CORN: The corn closed a bit higher today. The Pro Farmer tour estimates the current yield 4 bu to the acre less than the last USDA report. This could prove important, and could signal reductions in the next USDA reports. The weather has been less than ideal in areas of Iowa. The other consideration is Ukraine. The current weather conditions there are less than ideal and this has caused a rise in the cash corn price. This will be interesting to see if the Chinese will start to purchase more US corn. They still have concerns there as well with the recent flooding. In addition the size of the stocks. It is my thought that the corn put a low in place at approx 320 dec. The question now is do we have a market in front of us. Quantify your risk.
John J. Walsh
President, Walsh Trading, Inc.
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