RIGHT NOW
Argentina is clear this morning. Big storms are hitting southern and eastern Mato Grosso and moderate showers are falling over northern Bahia.
GFS 1-5 & 6-10 DAY LINK
The midday GFS model continues to show moderate to heavy rains over the eastern half of Argentina with similar rainfall amounts and coverage when compared to the Canadian and the European model. In the 6-10 day however, the GFS model continues to show very heavy rains but only over the northeast 25% of Argentina. The model drops anywhere from 3-10″/ 75-250mm of rain over Corrientes and 2-4″/ 50-100mm over eastern Chaco, eastern Formosa and far northern Santa Fe.
EUROPEAN MODEL 1-5 & 6-10 DAY LINK
The midday European model continues to show significant rains over all of central, eastern, northern Argentina over the next 5 days with the sole exception again being Cordoba and La Pampa. Rainfall amounts range from 1 -6″/ 25-150mm with 70% coverage. Areas such as Paraguay as well as southwestern and southeastern Brazil see light to moderate rain showers with most rainfall amounts under 1″/25mm and coverage ranging from 40 to 50%. Central and eastern Brazil is completely dry over the next five days. In the 6-10 day, the European model continues to show significant rains over southeastern Brazil / RGDS/ Uruguay and into most of northeastern Argentina covering the states of Corrientes, eastern Chaco, eastern Formosa, Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios. Again Cordoba stays dry as does Buenos Aires and La Pampa. Notice that in the 6-10 day there is also a significant plume of rain developing from Parana into MGDS and Mato Grosso of 1-3″/ 25-75mm.
CANADIAN MODEL 1-5 & 6-10 DAY LINK
Here for the first time we are presenting the Canadian model and we are doing so to show how far behind the GFS model is. Notice that the Canadian model over the next 5 days and in the 6 to 10 day shows significant areas of rain for much of Argentina. In the 1-5 DAY, the Canadian model has 1-4″/25-100mm over all of central, eastern and northern Argentina with a bias to the eastern half. In the 6-10 DAY, the Canadian model is much closer to the European model as it shows a large area of 2 -5″/ 50-125mm of rain over all of central, eastern and northern Argentina as well as Paraguay with the sole exception being Cordoba which appears to stay mostly dry. Also note that in the 6-10 DAY, the Canadian model has more rain pushing into western Parana, MGDS and western Mato Grosso which is in close agreement with the GFS and European.
6-10 DAY ENSEMBLES LINK
Usually when you are dealing with the GFS and the European models … the GFS tends to run a little wetter than the European. But in this whole setup that has not been the case.
We can also see this in the ensembles. Notice again that the European ensembles in the 6-10 day is wetter over eastern and central Argentina whereas the GFS model has heavy rains into more of southeastern Brazil.
11-15 DAY LINK
No real significant changes here. The European models again somewhat wetter over northern and northeastern Argentina than the GFS but both models have some moderate rain in this area in the 11 to 15 day. Both models shift the significant rains into the interior portions of central, western Brazil and this is very similar to what the data showed on Sunday afternoon.