Bears are in charge as the weather is still perceived as beneficial to wheat development and a minor road block for corn and bean plantings and moisture, not too extreme, is usually considered to be more of a blessing than a curse! Farmers are long and funds are short and world grain stocks appear to be growing. The United States may become the supplier of last resort as competing exporting nations around the Black Sea have become a little more aggressive.
We are having issues and concerns in Iowa, Minnesota , Nebraska and the Dakotas with damp conditions and there are and will be planting and seeding delays. Spring wheat is well behind yet, as said in the previous paragraph, moisture typically translates to bushels. Crusty old timers sometimes say that the only way to kill wheat is with a drought or the cinch bug. Yet, they also say that you can make the crop a bunch of junk if it rains too much during harvest. Corn acres may slip a bit if we get another week or two of wet weather and yield potential may start slipping if it appears that suitable field work days stay at 1 to 2 days per week for another few weeks. The crop progress reports are showing more than adequate to surplus top soil and sub soil conditions for the Heartland. We can use a window of warmer and drier conditions.
The macroeconomics impacting grains is still uncertain. The Fed appears to be happy staying the course with monetary policy. Trade deals are anyone’s guess as to when and what! That leaves the weather as the main influence and right now it still looks long term favorable for more grain in the world.
The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer and obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in current market prices.
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