Pure Hegde – Livestock and Grain

Bill AllenGeneral Commentary


The Soybeans and the Cattle Markets, I feel are on the edge of the next big break. Do what you need to do now, to protect your downside exposure. June’24 Live Cattle were 1.27 ½ higher today and settled at 173.32 ½, which is also today’s high. The 1-month high is 186.62 ½. Today’s low was 171.90 and the 1-month low is 171.40. The 52-week low is 162.75*. Since 3/8 June’24 Live Cattle are 10.10 lower or 5 ½%. The Feeders were lower today. May’24 Feeder Cattle were 1.00 lower today and settled at 237.17 ½. Today’s high was 240.00 and the 1-month high is 260.60. Today’s low was 236.250 and that’s also the new 1-month low. The 52-week low is 216.67 ½. Since 3/8 May’24 Feeder Cattle are 19.57 ½ lower or more than 7 ½%. The Hogs were higher again. June’24 Lean Hogs were 0.02 ½ higher today and settled at 107.92 ½. Today’s low was 106.62 ½ and the 1-month low is 98.62 ½. Today’s high was 108.35 and that’s also the new 1-month and 52-week week high. Since 3/8 June’24 Lean Hogs are 6.10 higher or just short of 6%. The Grain Markets were mixed today, with only the Corn closing higher. May’24 Soybeans were 3 ½ cents lower today and settled at 1181 ½, only a penny from today’s low of 1180 ½. The 1-month low is 1168 ½. Today’s high was 1193 ¼ and the 1-month high 1226 ¾. The 52-week low is currently 1128 ½… Since 3/8 May’24 Soybeans are 2 ½ cents lower or fractionally lower. The Corn stayed positive today. May’24 Corn was 1 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 435 ½. Today’s high was 437 ½ and the 1-month high is 448. Today’s low was 424 ½ and the 1-month low is 408 ¾. Since 3/8 May’24 Corn is 4 ¼ cents lower or almost 1%. The Wheat Market gave a little back today. May’24 Wheat was 1 ½ cents lower today and settled at 565 ¾. Today’s high was 573 ¾ and the 1-month high is just a penny higher at 574 ¾. Today’s low was 559 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 523 ½. Since 3/8 May’24 Wheat is 28 cents higher or more than 5%. The Cattle Markets took a beating last week, and I expect that to continue. There is a lot of weight in the Cattle Markets. Last week the average dressed weight was 845 pounds, up 2 pounds from the week before and well above the 820 pounds the same week a year ago, and well above the 5-year average of 822 pounds for the same time period. The Cattle slaughter numbers were up as well. Last week totaled 609,00 head, that’s up from 586,00 the week before. Last week beef production was 513.700 million pounds, much higher than 494.500 million pounds a year ago. Cattle prices last week were lower as well, at $186.19 down from 188.08 the week before. Prices are still high, and the market is flooded with Beef. I feel the next leg lower will be here sooner than later. Friday’s low in June’24 Live Cattle was 171.40, and if it gets through there mu downside targets are 169.57 and then 162.75. My downside in May’24 Feeder Cattle are 233.50 and then 231.75. Then 221.00. There are lots of Beans too. Soybean exports have not been good, and in February they totaled 193 million down from 197 million a year ago, and weekly exports dropped 13.2% last week to 484,000mt, down over 28% from the same time last year. Net shorts also rose by 3,500 contracts for the week to total 138.000 contracts. Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered its Corn estimates by 2 million tons, to 52mt. The latest USDA estimate is 56mt. I am still Bearish the Soybean Market but have been looking at the upside in the Corn Market. My downside targets for May Soybeans are 1173 ¼ and then 1165 ¾, followed by 1140 ¼ and 1128 ½. Upside targets for Corn are 441, 448, and 461, if Corn breaks then 428 ¾. My upside for Wheat is 575 ¾ and then 585 ¾ and for the downside 546 ½ and 543. It is going to be a volatile year in the Livestock and Grain Markets this year, and I am looking forward to it. Protect your downside exposure when you can, not when you have to.   

Call me and let’s talk about the future movement of these Markets.



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Bill Allen

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