9/18/24
It was a long, slow day waiting for the Fed Rate Cut decision. The Fed cut the interest rate by ½ a point. The Cattle Markets were not open for long after the cut was announced, and the Cattle Markets were unchanged or slightly lower. The Fats closed unchanged on the day. December’24 Live Cattle were unchanged and settled at 179.85. Today’s high was 180.32 ½ and the 1-month high is 180.50. Today’s low was 179.57 ½ and the 1-month low is 173.17 ½. Since 8/16 December’24 Live Cattle are 2.10 higher or more than 1%. The Feeders were down less than a buck. October’24 Feeder Cattle were 80 cents lower and settled at 239.95. Today’s high was 241.17 ½ and the 1-month high is 241.47 ½. Today’s low was 239.55 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 229.35. Since 8/16 October’24 Feeder Cattle are 4.75 higher or just over 2%. The Hogs were positive today. December’24 Lean Hogs were 17 ½ cents higher and settled at 73.87 ½. Today’s high was 74.05 and the 1-month high is 74.07 ½. Today’s low was 73.45 and the 1-month low is 66.77 ½. Since 8/16 December’24 Lean Hogs are 6.80 higher or more than 10%. The Feeders were lower today, but I expected a much lower close. The Dow Jones shot higher after the rate cut, but traded lower after Powell took questions. The Dow is still bouncing around right now. The Cattle on Feed Report is on Friday, and I have heard expectations range from 100.7% – 101% Cattle on Feed, and Placements 98.5% – 101% with Marketings 96.5% – 98% of last year’s numbers. Last month Feeder Cattle sales were 9.4% below last year, and auction sales were down over 7%. I have not heard of any Cattle being traded yet in the cash market today. We will see if the packers push the market lower tomorrow, if they need to buy Cattle. I feel the Cattle Markets will continue to trade lower tomorrow, and into the Cattle on Feed Report, with heavy weights and full Feedlots. The Dow Jones Index is now down 58 points.
The Grain Markets were slow as well today, with the Beans higher for some absurd reason. The November’24 Soybeans traded up to 1022 in the overnight trade. I hope you sold it there. Today during the trading session, the November’24 Beans traded up to 1018, and that was a great time to sell calls and buy puts. November’24 Soybeans were 8 cents higher today and settled at 1014. Today’s high was 1022 and the 1-month high is 1031 ¼. Today’s low was 1006 ¼ and the 1-month low is 992. Since 8/16 November’24 Soybeans are 57 ½ cents higher or 6%. The Corn was fractionally higher. December’24 Corn was ¼ cent higher today and settled at 412 ¾. Today’s high was 415 and the 1-month high is 416. Today’s low was 411 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 385. Since 8/16 December’24 Corn is 20 ¼ cents higher or more than 5%. The Wheat did not do much today. December’24 Wheat was unchanged on the day and settled at 575 ¾. Today’s high was 582 ¾ and the 1-month high is 598 ¾. Today’s low was 573 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 520 ¾. Since 8/16 December’24 Wheat is 23 ¼ cents higher or more than 4%. The Beans closed higher today, and I think it’s a gift to be able to sell at higher prices. The only thing I keep hearing about is dryness in Brazil, but it is still early, and the monsoon rains should arrive soon. Everything else about the Soybean Market is negative. Argentina is planting 7% more Soybeans, and CONAB says Brazil is planting 3% more Soybeans with production estimates of 166.28MT up 12.82% from last year. The USDA has the Brazilian production number at 169.34MT. The Soybean yield here is a record at 53.2 bushels per acre, with ending stocks at 550 million bushels. Pro Farmer had a completely different take on the Soybean crop compared to the USDA. Pro Farmer had ending stocks at 675 million bushels. Then there is China. They have been stockpiling Soybeans in case of a trade war or if they cause problems in the South China Sea. China could also put tariffs on the agricultural sector, and Soybeans would be on the top of the list. The tariffs would be in response to the US putting tariffs on China’s EV’s, and that begins September’27th, one week from Friday. I still recommend selling calls and buying puts. I can show you what I would do if you were interested. I would also start getting short several months out, and March’25 Soybeans settled at 1045 ¾ today. I already have trades structured in March’25 as well. If you have any questions for me, call or send me an email. BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM
-Bill
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