9/13/24
The Livestock and Grain Markets realign after digesting the WASDE Report yesterday. The Cattle Markets tried to continue the run higher today, but the heavy weights stalled the markets, and the cattle settled a little lower today. October’24 Live Cattle were 37 ½ cents lower today and settled at 177.65. Today’s high was 178.90 and the 1-month high was 182.52 ½. Today’s low was 177.00 and the current 1-month low is 173.72 ½. The 52-week low is 168.50. Since 8/13 October’24 Live Cattle are 3.20 lower or almost 2%. The Feeders were down fractionally as well. October’24 Feeder Cattle were 62 ½ cents lower today and settled at 239.12 ½. Today’s high was 241.37 ½ and the 1-month high is 243.45. Today’s low was 238.30 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 229.35. Since 8/13 October’24 Feeder Cattle are 70 cents lower or almost ½%. The Hogs closed lower as well. October’24 Lean Hogs were 45 cents lower today and settled at 78.45. Today’s high was 79.75 and the 1-month high is 83.37 ½. Today’s low was 78.27 ½ and the 1-month low is 73.00. The 52-week low is 68.05. Since 8/13 October’24 Lean Hogs are 5.52 ½ higher or just over 7 ½%. The Cattle Markets were unable to sustain a rally today, although they did try. On the highs today the October’24 Fats were 87 ½ cents higher and the October’24 Feeders were 1.62 ½ higher. The Cattle Markets broke lower after the early morning rally failed. I still feel the Cattle Markets are overbought. Chinese Meat imports have been weak. China imported 565,000MT of meat in August, but that’s down 62,000MT or almost 10% from August of last year. Though the first eight months of 2024, China imported 4.40MMT of meat, but that is down 710,000MT or almost 14% from the same time period last year. Argentina signed a new trade deal with China recently and they are about to start exporting Cattle to China next year, something they have not done in 15 years. H5N1 has resurfaced in California, with 8 Dairy Herds found to be infected with the disease, and the person in Missouri who contracted the disease has recovered. The weather will be changing again soon, and that means all the migratory birds will be on the move again, and I am sure the government will be over testing everything. The Fed is expected to cut rates next week, and if they screw it up, the Stock Market probably won’t take it very well. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets and feel the October’24 Fats will test the 1-month low of 173.72 ½, just $3.92 ½ away from today’s settlement price.
The Grains were mixed today with the Beans falling lower, while the Corn and Wheat looked strong. The Beans were bold enough to open higher and try to ignite a rally, but that was stopped cold. November’24 Soybeans were 4 ½ cents lower today and settled at 1006 ¼. Today’s high was 1021 and the 1-month high is 1031 ¼. Today’s low was 1002 ¼ and the current 1-month and 52-week low is 955. Since 8/13 November’24 Soybeans are 43 ¾ cents higher or just over 4 ½%. The Corn stayed strong today. December’24 Corn was 7 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 413 ¼. Today’s high was 414 and the 1-month high is 416. Today’s low was 406 ¼ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 385. Since 8/13 December’24 Corn is 16 cents higher or 4%. The Wheat Market made new highs today. December’24 Wheat was 16 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 594 ¾. Today’s high was 598 ¾ and that is the 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 578 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 520 ¾. Since 8/13 December’24 Wheat is 43 cents higher or almost 8%. The WASDE Report was yesterday, and it showed Soybean yield as expected at 53.2 bushels per acre. The 2024/2025 ending stocks were 10 million bushels lower than expected, but still at a huge level of 550MB. Pro Farmer has their own forecast for ending stocks in Soybeans. For 2023-2024 Pro Farmer has ending stocks at 335MB and for 2024-2025 their ending stocks number is 675 million bushels. The pod counts in this report were below last year’s levels, and below Pro Farmers crop tour numbers. Their rise in ending stocks was attributed to the Soybean Pods are still filling and over the last 5-years pod counts have increased from September to October. Soybean exports to China are projected to decline 7.69mmt or 7 ½% for 2024-2025. It has been dry in Argentina with only 1% of the crop planted, but they plan on planting 7% more soybeans this year, instead of Corn, due to the Leafhopper problem. Brazil has been dry, but it early, and the monsoon rains are expected to arrive soon, and I feel they will produce another large crop. If the Pro Farmer numbers are correct, it will be a large market mover for the October report. I am still Bearish the Soybean Market and feel it can trade down to the 910-930 level, and then decide what to do. The Corn Market looks strong and could continue higher to the 435-445 level. If the Beans break hard, I doubt the Corn would trade lower for very long, and If the Wheat can trade through the 6.00 level, that would be good for the Corn as well. The Fact is the ending stocks for Soybeans 2024-2025 is still huge, at 550mb and that number could be rising soon. I remain Bearish the Soybean and Cattle Markets.
-Bill
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
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