9/9/24
The Cattle and Soybean Markets bounced higher today, and it looked like a great selling opportunity. What did you think I was going to say… I feel both of these markets could be lower by the end of the week. If I thought the Cattle would rally, I would say something about it, but I just don’t see it yet. The Fats traded just 5 cents from the 1-month low. October’24 Live Cattle were 1.75 higher today and settled at 176.92 ½. Today’s high was 177.57 ½ and the 1-month high is 182.52 ½. Today’s low was 173.77 ½ and the 1-month low is 173.77 ½. The current 52-week low is 168.50. Since 8/9 October’24 Live Cattle are 4.22 ½ lower or almost 2 ½%. The Feeders had a 6-dollar range. October’24 Feeder Cattle were 3.77 ½ higher and settled at 234.72 ½. Today’s high was 235.57 ½ and the 1-month high is 243.45. Today’s low was 229.57 ½ and the 1-month and current 52-week low is 229.35. Since 8/9 October’24 Feeder Cattle are 5.05 lower or more than 2%. The Hog were unable to do much today. October’24 Lean Hogs were 70 cents lower today and settled at 78.80. Today’s high was 80.02 ½ and the 1-month high is 83.37 ½. Today’s low was 78.47 ½ and the 1-month low is 71.32 ½. Since 8/9 October’24 Lean Hogs are 4.82 ½ higher or 6 ½%. The Cattle Markets headed lower this morning, on the way to test the 1-month lows, but did not quite get there before they bounced higher. The Fats were 5 cents from the 1-month low and the Feeders were 22 ½ cents from their 1-month low. I have been saying for a while I thought the Cattle markets would retest their 1-month lows, and they were close today. The Dow Jones Index was up about 600 points when the Cattle rallied, that along with some short covering after getting close to the lows, and before the debate tomorrow night, were all reasons for the rally in my opinion. The October’24 Live Cattle on today’s lows were 1.40 lower, and The October Feeders were 1.37 ½ lower on today’s lows. The October’24 Feeders rallied an impressive 6.00 off the lows today but gave some back before the close. The October’24 Fats settled 83 cents off today’s high and the October’24 Feeders settled 85 cents off the highs. The cash trade was 2 to 3 dollars lower last week. The 5-day, 5-area weighted average was 181.25, down 2.32 from the week before at 183.57. Beef export sales were lower at 16,500 Tonnes, below the four-week average of 17,800 Tonnes. The average dressed cattle weight was 851 pounds up two pounds from the week before and up from 828 pounds this time last year. We will see how the markets react tomorrow, and I think we will see some action Wednesday through the end of the week. I feel that the Cattle Markets can be lower by the end of the week and replace the 1-month lows.
The Grains were all higher today and there was a selling opportunity in the Soybeans. November’24 Soybeans were 13 cents higher today and settled at 1018. Today’s high was 1020 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1031 ¼. Today’s low was 1001 ¾ and the 1-month and current 52-week low is 955. Since 8/9 November’24 Soybeans are 15 ½ cents higher or 1 ½%. The Corn was able to stay positive. December’24 Corn was 1 cent higher today and settled at 407 ¼. Today’s high was 408 and the 1-month high is 416. Today’s low was 403 ¼ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 385. Since 8/9 December’24 Corn is 12 ¼ cents higher or 3%. The Wheat had a small gain as well. December’24 Wheat was 1 ½ cents higher today and settled at 568 ½. Today’s high was 569 ¾ and the 1-month high is 582 ¾. Today’s low was 560 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 520 ¾. Since 8/9 December’24 Wheat is 2 ¾ cents higher or about ½%. The November’24 Soybeans were lower on the open but seemed to rally with the rest of the commodities. The WASDE Report is this Thursday the 12th, and I believe most of the rally was based on short covering in front of the $10.00 level and before the Report is released. The Corn and Wheat Markets were on both sides of the market today, and did not do a whole lot, but managed to stay positive. I still feel the Soybean Market will head lower, and if it goes quickly, then I feel the Corn and Wheat will follow lower at first but leave the Beans behind at some point and climb higher from current levels. If the Beans head lower in stages, then the Corn and Wheat could get caught in a lower/sideways trade. I still feel the Soybeans can head below the 950 level, and trade between 910-930. I remain Bearish the Cattle and Soybean Markets and will continue to be until I see something to change my mind. There is still time to protect your downside exposure, in case of an unforeseen break. I don’t want these markets to head lower, but I do feel that they will. If you have any questions for me, just ask. BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM
-Bill
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
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