9/5/24 – Afternoon
The Livestock Markets headed South today, with the Fats down almost 2 dollars and the Feeders down nearly 3 dollars. Reports of Anthrax killing Cattle in Wyoming surfaced this morning and that did not help the Cattle Markets. The October’24 Live Cattle were 1.97 ½ lower today and settled at 177.25. The October’24 Feeders were 2.87 ½ lower today and settled at 234.57 ½. The October’24 Lean Hogs were 87 ½ cents lower today and settled at 80.70. The Cattle Markets were pressured lower this morning, before the anthrax reports, on economic fears. Tomorrow is the unemployment report, and that could be a big market mover. I have spoken to several Ranchers that are nervous about tomorrow’s economic data and are looking to unload innovatory if things do not look good. They were comfortable selling at the Packers levels. The Packers also probably had something to do with the break today, with the thought they will try to buy Cattle cheaper, so why not add to the pressure and help push them lower. Long positions are still being liquidated, and I feel the Cattle Markets will continue the slide lower and make new 52-week lows. Today the October’24 Live Cattle traded through the 38.2% retracement from the 4-week low of 177.07 ½ and although they settled above that number, I feel it will happen again and push lower. October’24 Live Cattle settled just 3.52 ½ away from the 1-month low of 173.172 ½ and 8.75 from the current 52-week low of 168.50. I feel that the Feeders will continue to break and repeatedly make new 52-lows as they drop. Today the October’24 Feeders traded and settled through the 38.2% retracement from the 4-week low number of 234.73 ½. October’24 Feeders are just 5.22 ½ from the current 1-month and 52-week low of 229.35. There were more reports of Dairy cows infected with Bird-Flu in California, but that should not be a market mover anymore. However, what will happen when the migrating birds return, and fly across the country again? I don’t want to see any problems, but if issues arrive, I believe the path of least resistance is lower. I am also hearing the cash market is currently trading a couple dollars lower.
The Grain Markets were all lower this morning, but the Soybeans were able to climb back and close positive. The November’24 Soybeans were 2 cents higher today and settled at 1023 ½. December’24 Corn was 2 cents lower today and settled at 410 ¾. December’24 Wheat was 6 cents lower today and settled at 574 ¾. November’24 Soybeans were 13 ½ cents lower on the lows today when they traded down to 1010. December’24 Corn was 6 cents lower on the lows today when they traded down to 406 ¾. The December’24 Wheat broke after trading through my target level of 580 yesterday. Today, the December’24 Wheat traded down to 566 ¾ and were 14 cents lower on the lows. There could still be some upside in the Corn and Wheat Markets, but I don’t believe we will see any huge rallies and recommend continuing to sell into strength. I feel the Corn can possibly trade in the 440’s and don’t believe we will see 600 Wheat, at least not yet. I still feel the Soybeans have about another dollar to break and can see the market trading down to the 910-930 level. The WASDE Report is on the 12th, and I feel it will show more Soybeans were planted than were expected, and that fewer acres of Corn made it into the ground, I also believe the Report will show more damage to the Corn crop than was expected and could cause the Corn to rally. There is still time to take advantage of the price action I feel is coming in these markets. I feel the Soybeans and Cattle Markets have a long way to go, before the bottom is found. If you would like to see my current trade examples or future trades, just send me an email to BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM