8/26/24
I feel there will be very different price action tomorrow, and if you are short the Soybean or Cattle Markets, stay short, and if you are long the Corn or Wheat Markets stay long. Other than opportunity to sell into strength, the Cattle Markets closed well off the highs of the day, and the Soybeans traded into the 980’s again, and I still like that level to sell them again. October’24 Live Cattle were 1.27 ½ higher today and settled at 176.97 ½. Today’s high was 178.30 and the 1-month high is 188.97 ½. Today’s low was 174.80 and the 1-month low is 173.72 ½. The current 52-week low is 168.50. Since 7/26 October’24 Live Cattle are 11.57 ½ lower or more than 6%. The Feeders were overpriced at the end of the day. October’24 Feeder Cattle were 3.10 higher today and settled at 237.47 ½. Today’s high was 238.70 and the 1-month high is 259.32 ½. Today’s low was 232.92 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 229.35. Since 7/26 October’24 Feeder Cattle are 21.07 ½ lower or more than 8%. The Hogs were slightly lower but closed near the highs. October’24 Lean Hogs were 15 cents lower today and settled at 80.40. Today’s high was 81.45 and that is also the new 1-month high. Today’s low was 79.77 ½ and the 1-month low is 71.32 ½. Since 7/26 October’24 Lean Hogs are 2.25 higher or almost 3%. Managed money dramatically decreased their long positions last week as traders added to their short positions. So why not let the Market rally a little today so they can sell it again at better price levels. The Cattle on Feed Report Friday showed there were approximately 65,000 more head than expected, and placements increased almost 6%. The dressed Cattle weight last week was 847 pounds, up three pounds from the week before and 23 pounds more than a year ago. The Cattle Markets were lower on the open, with the October’24 Fats opening more than 2-dollars lower than today’s settlement price and the October’24 Feeders opening more than 4-dollars lower than today’s settlement. The Cattle Markets ended the day with the October’24 Fats closing 1.32 ½ below the day’s highs and the October’24 Feeders settling 1.22 ½ below today’s highs. I feel that all of this points to a lower Cattle Market.
The Grains were mixed today, with the Beans higher and Corn and Wheat a little lower. November’24 Soybeans were 7 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 980 ¾. Today’s high was 982 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1044 ½. Today’s low was 960 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 955. Since 7/26 November’24 Soybeans are 67 ¾ cents lower or almost 6 ½%. The Corn Market was a little lower today. December’24 Corn was 4 ½ lower and settled at 386 ½. Today’s high was 391 and the 1-month high is 413. Today’s low was 385 and that is the new 1-month low and 52-week low as well. Since 7/26 December’24 Corn is 23 ½ cents lower or more than 5 ½%. The Wheat was lower as well. December’24 Wheat was 3 cents lower today and settled at 525. Today’s high was 531 ¾ and the 1-month high is 574 ¾. Today’s low was 522 and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week low. Since 7/26 December’24 Wheat is 23 ½ cents lower or more than 4%. The Soybeans reached the 980’s again today, and I recommend selling at these levels. November’24 Soybeans were 11 ½ cents higher on Friday and on the lows today were down 12 ½ cents. I feel that with all of the Beans in the world, the 52-week low will be changed again soon. I feel that the bottom could be in for the Corn Market. There was heavy trading volume in the December’24 Corn Market today, and today was the first time the 390 level was breached, but the market only broke 4 ½ cents on new 52-week contract lows. That tells me there is interest at these levels, and I recommend starting to hedge your feed cost now. The December’24 Wheat Market also looks like it could be a buy. December’24 Wheat has broken $237.25 from the 52-week high and is down 31 ½ cents in the last four trading days. I feel a bounce in the market is due.
-Bill
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 South Wacker Drive
Suite 540
Chicago, Illinois 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.