12/6/23
Well… it’s better than being wrong. The Cattle and Soybean markets were spanked down again today. February’24 Live Cattle dropped another 5.425 today and settled at 163.550. Today’s low of 162.550 in Feb’24 Live Cattle is also the 1-month and 52-week low. Since 11/6 February’24 Live Cattle is down 18.675 or over 10%. January’24 Feeder Cattle broke another 4.550 today and settled at 210.150, just above today’s low of 209.250. Today’s low was fractionally above the 1-month and 52-week low of 209.150, which was traded on Monday 12/4. Since 11/6 Jan’24 Live Cattle have dropped 26.250 or over 11%. Hogs were slightly lower today. February’24 Lean Hogs were 0.050 lower today and settled at 69.300. Since 11/6 Feb’24 Hogs are down 6.800 or almost 9%. I am still Bearish Cattle and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. When the Cattle trade at my next level of 145-150, and Feeders trade 180-185, I will take another look at it, unless new market factors arise. The Soybeans were beat down again today as well. January’24 Soybeans fell 10 cents today and settled at 1295 ½. Today’s low of 1293 ¾ in Jan’24 Beans, is also the 1-month low. Since 11/6 Jan’24 Beans are down 68 ½ or over 5%. March’24 Corn was 6 ¼ lower today and settled at 484 ¼. Since 11/6 Mar’24 Corn is 8 ¼ cents lower or 1 ½% and YTD down $1.33 ¾ or over 21%. March’24 Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 633 ½. Since 11/6 March’24 Wheat has gained 31 cents or over 5%. YTD March’24 Wheat is down $1.92 or over 23%. Yesterday, the Soybean market traded through the $13.00 level, that was expected, but it happened sooner than even I thought. I still feel that the Soybean market will continue to break. I believe the Beans will head to the $11.50 level this summer, and head lower from there. I recommend hedging in July’24 Soybeans now. Today I structured several trades in August’24 Soybeans, and yes, they are Bearish. Call or email me if you would like to talk about the markets. There is always opportunity if you know where to look for it.
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Bill Allen
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