8/2/24
That was an interesting couple of days. I remember saying it would be vicious. My Cattle trades worked pretty damn well, and there will be plenty more opportunity to come. The Fats were down again today but settled a couple bucks off the lows. October’24 Live Cattle were 1.65 lower today and settled at 182.07 ½. Today’s high was 183.70 and the 1-month high is 189.05. Today’s low was 179.77 ½ and that is the new 1-month low as well. The 52-week low is 168.50. Since 7/2 October’24 Live Cattle are 3.57 ½ lower or almost 2%. The Feeders were almost 4-dollars lower today, but it could have been much worse. September’24 Feeder Cattle were 3.65 lower today and settled at 248.15. Today’s high was 251.50 and the 1-month high is 264.30. Today’s low was 244.20 and that is also the new 1-month low. The 52-week low is 233.05. Since 7/2 September’24 Feeder Cattle are 13.17 ½ lower or just or 5%. The Hogs were lower today, but actually hung in there. October’24 Lean Hogs were 45 cents lower today and settled at 76.57 ½. Today’s high was 77.22 ½ and the 1-month high is 78.70. Today’s low was 76.07 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 68.05. Since 7/2 October’24 Lean Hogs are 2.30 higher or more than 3%. The Cattle Markets have taken the dive I anticipated, and I don’t believe it’s over yet. The large break in the Stock Market, added fuel to the Cattle decline. The US Dollar index was hit hard today, down 1.200 and that did nothing to stop the Cattle from falling apart. September’24 Feeders were 7.60 lower at one point today, when they traded down to 244.20. The 52-week low in September’24 Feeder Cattle is just 11.15 away. October’24 Live Cattle were 3.95 lower on the lows today, when they traded 179.77 ½. The 52-week low in October’24 Live Cattle is only 11.27 ½ lower. October’24 Fats traded through the 100-Day and 200-Day moving averages today, along with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. The bounce higher in the Fats coincided with a 200-point rally in the Dow Jones Index. When the Livestock Markets closed today, the Dow was 920 points lower. If the stock market continues to break and there is a rally in the dollar index, look out below. China also stopped meat imports from the Swift Beef Plant and Lineage Logistics Cold Storage in Grand Island Nebraska. We do not yet know the reason why.
The Grain Markets were all higher today and paused setting new monthly lows. The Beans gained over a dime today. November’24 Soybeans were 10 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 1027 ¼. Today’s high was 1032 and the 1-month high is 1133 ¾. Today’s low was 1014 ¾ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 1013. Since 7/2 November’24 Soybeans are 85 ¾ cents lower or more than 7 ½%. The Corn was up about a nickel. December’24 Corn was 4 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 403 ¼. Today’s high was 404 ¾ and the 1-month high is 425 ¾. Today’s low was 398 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 395. Since 7/2 December’24 Corn is 18 cents lower or more than 4%. The Wheat climbed higher and settled near the highs. September’24 Wheat was 7 cents higher today and settled at 539. Today’s high was 540 ½ and the 1-month high is 592 ¼. Today’s low was 528 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 514 ¼. Since 7/2 September’24 Wheat is 42 cents lower or more than 7%. The Grains were relatively quiet again today, as most of the focus was on the Livestock and Stock Markets again today. The recent Bean trades I sent out are working well, as I thought a temporary bounce in the Bean market was likely, especially with the possibility of China purchasing more Soybeans. I like the Beans heading to 10.50 before they turn around again. I don’t think they will revisit the 1080-1085 level, but if they do, it will be a gift, and an automatic selling opportunity. The 20-Day moving average for November’24 Soybeans is 1052 ¼. If the Beans get up there, I think the Wheat would rally, especially with all of the turbulence in the world, and that would support the Corn Market as well. September’24 Wheat traded just 2 ½ cents from their 20-Day moving average of 543. The 50-Day moving average is 598 ½. For December’24 Corn the 50-Day moving average is 438 ½, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 461 ¼. I am still long term Bearish the Soybean Market, but I think the record shorts in the market would be just fine if the Beans rallied another 25 cents before they slammed it back down again. What was you brokers advice in the Livestock and Grain Markets over the last month? I already know it was not good. Give me a call, I can help get you back on track. If you are a producer and interested in the OTC markets give me a call, and we can talk about several products we offer. I will also be at the Farm Progress Show in Boone Iowa, August 27-29, let me know if you want to meet there. Have a great weekend.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
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