7/31/24
The Cattle Markets were mixed today as the Hogs had a nice gain. The Fats headed lower today. October’24 Live Cattle were 77 ½ cents lower today and settled at 186.67 ½. Today’s high was 187.25 and the 1-month high is 189.05. Today’s low was 185.87 ½ and the 1-month low is 181.72 ½. The 52-week low is 168.50. Since 6/28 October’24 Live Cattle are 1.80 higher or almost 1%. The Feeders had a small gain. September’24 Feeder Cattle were 15 cents higher today and settled at 257.10. Today’s high was 257.82 ½ and the 1-month high is 264.30. Today’s low was 255.55 and the 1-month low is 253.55. The 52-week low is 233.05. Since 6/28 September’24 Feeder Cattle are 2.55 lower or almost 1%. The Hogs were higher again today. October’24 Lean Hogs were 1.15 higher today and settled at 75.92 ½. Today’s high was 76.05 and the 1-month high is 78.70. Today’s low was 74.50 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 68.05. Since 6/28 October’24 Lean Hogs are 20 cents higher or ¼%. I still feel the Cattle Markets are going to break. The September’24 Feeders have basically been in a 5-Dollar range for a couple of weeks now, with the range continuing to shrink since May. The longer and smaller the range becomes, the more explosive the breakout will be when it happens. The last breakout sent the market higher, and I feel the opposite will happen next time. The US Dollar Index has been getting crushed and the Stock Market continues to climb higher somehow. If those two factors switch, it will not be good for the Cattle Markets. For October’24 Live Cattle the 100-Day moving average is 181.67 and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 181.58. The September’24 Feeders are currently between their 100-Day moving average of 258.89 and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 256.87 ½. The Hogs continued to impress today, after Monday’s collapse, with October’24 Lean Hogs gaining 1.15. We will see how these Markets end the week in just two days.
The Grains were mixed as well today, with the Beans and Corn setting new contract lows, and the Wheat coming within 1 ¼ cents of the contract low. November’24 Soybeans were 1 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 1022 ½. Today’s high was 1031 and the 1-month high is 1133¾. Today’s low was 1015 and that is also the new contract low. Since 6/28 November’24 Soybeans are 79 cents higher or over 7%. The Corn headed lower today. December’24 Corn was 5 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 399 ¾. Today’s high was 406 ½ and the 1-month high is 426 ½. Today’s low was 397 ¾ and that is the new contract low. Since 6/28 December’24 Corn is 19 ¼ cents lower or more than 5 ½%. The Wheat was able to close higher today. September’24 Wheat was 3 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 527 ¼. Today’s high was 534 and the 1-month high is 592 ¼. Today’s low was 515 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 514 ¼. Since 6/28 September’24 Wheat is 44 ½ cents lower or almost 8%. The November’24 Soybeans tried to hold above Mondays low of 518, but pressure was too great, and the third push lower took the November’24 Beans down to a new contract low of 1015. Soybeans have not traded this low since September of 2020, and haven’t traded below $10.00 since July of 2020. It still looks like it wants to break, however If China steps in and buys a bunch of Beans, there will be a rally in the market. If there are no large purchases of Soybeans, no major weather problems, and locust don’t eat the crop, then it looks like the Beans are heading lower. The December’24 Corn Market has not closed below $4.00 since February of this year, and it looks like the Corn is still following the Beans around. The Wheat was higher today but closed 6 ¾ cents off the highs. Whenever the Soybeans find a bottom, and it could be a while, then I feel the Corn will follow the Wheat higher. Then again, if “things” get “messy” overseas, all bets are off.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
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