7/19/24
The Fats and the Feeders continued lower this morning, but turned it around, and the Fats closed higher on the day. August’24 Live Cattle were 85 cents higher today and settled at 183.10. Today’s high was 183.32 ½ and the 1-month high is 188.25. Today’s low was 181.90 and the 1-month low is 180.35. Since 6/18 August’24 Live Cattle are 1.00 higher or about ½%. The Feeders were down over 2 dollars this morning but got most of it back before the close. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 62 ½ cents lower today and settled at 255.60. Today’s high was 256.45 and the 1-month high is 163.90. Today’s low was 253.87 ½ and the 1-month low is 253.45. Since 6/18 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 4.55 lower or 1 ¾%. The Hogs were positive again. August’24 Lean Hogs were 20 cents higher today and settled at 91.57 ½. Today’s high was 92.17 ½ and the 1-month high is 92.57 ½. Today’s low was 90.82 ½ and the 1-month low is 83.67 ½. Since 6/18 August Lean Hogs are unchanged. The Cattle Markets were lower this morning, but the August’24 Live Cattle headed higher as the day went on, and the Feeders came off their lows. That was expected after yesterday’s loses, and the Cattle on Feed Report being released after the close today. The August’24 Feeders closed below the 50% retracement level of 256.21. The Feeders were waiting for the Fats to trade through 180.82, but that did not happen. If they do, they will head to 178.04 quickly, and then the Feeders can break. However, the Cattle on Feed report has been released, and it showed 1% more Cattle on Feed than last year, with expectations of 1.1% more. Placements were down 7% from last year, with the market expecting a 2.8% decline, and Marketings were down 9% from last year, with estimates being 8.3% lower. The Placement number was smaller than expected, but I don’t see the market shooting higher and staying there. The market reaction to these reports tends to be overdone, and after everything settles down, it will come back down to how many Cattle are purchased week to week. We will see how this report is digested over the weekend. There were still 11.3 million head on July 1st, 2024.
The shorts had another good day in the Soybean Market. November’24 Soybeans were 7 cents lower today and settled at 1036. Today’s high was 1049 and the 1-month high is 1136. Today’s low was 1035 ¼ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 1031 ¾. Since 6/18 November’24 Soybeans are 96 Cents lower or just over 8 ½%. The Corn was fractionally lower. December’24 Corn was ¼ of a cent lower and settled at 404 ¾. Today’s high was 410 ¾ and the 1-month high is 467. Today’s low was 404 and the 1-month and 52-week low is 403. Since 6/18 December’24 Corn is 63 cents lower or almost 13 ½%. The Wheat Market was much higher at one point but gave most of it back before the close. September’24 Wheat was 7 ½ cents higher today and settled at 542 ¾. Today’s high was 556 ¼ and the 1-month high is 600 ¼. Today’s low was 530 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 525 ¼. Since 6/18 September’24 Wheat is 56 ¼ cents lower or almost 9 ½%. The Soybean Market was 6 cents higher this morning, and I hope you took advantage of it, and sold some Beans. I recommend selling Beans every time the opportunity arises, until the bottom is found. The shorts will continue to let the market get higher, just so they can sell it again at a better price. The shorts are still in control, and will push this market lower, to find the stops. I am assuming they will push it lower sooner than later, before there is a chance of new bullish news in the market, or China purchases a large number of Soybeans. The Corn Market looks like it is willing to rally but needs a strong leader to follow. The Wheat Market was strong early this morning, but slowly faded down the rest of the day, and that caused the Corn to turn around as well. I remain Bearish the Soybean Market, and feel the Corn can rally, as long as it follows the Wheat higher. Have a great weekend.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
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