12/4/23
I have expected the $13.00 level in Soybeans for a while, that said, there could be a short-term bounce before continuing to break to $11.50. If you have been short, good for you, but I recommend buying some cheap calls, for short-term upside protection. January’24 Soybeans slid another 18 ¾ cents today and settled at 1306 ¼. Today’s low in Jan’24 Beans was 1003 ½ and that is the 1-month low as well. The 52-week low in January’24 Soybeans just happens to be $11.41 ½. The Corn and Wheat markets both closed higher today. March’24 Corn gained ¾ of a cent today and settled at 485 ½. March’24 Wheat was strong today. March’24 Wheat shot up 17 ¾ cents today and settled at 620 ½. Wheat opened this morning near the day’s low of 600 ¼ and climbed from there. I still feel that January’24 Soybeans will expire (12/22/23 18 Days) near the $13.00 level. This winter I believe the soybeans will continue to break through the summer to $11.50. I recommend hedging or initiating option trades now, in July’24 Soybeans. The Cattle markets simply look weak… February’24 Live Cattle was 2.050 lower again today and settled at 167.075. Today’s low of 166.625 is also the 1-month low in February’24 Live Cattle. The Feeders look awful… January’24 Feeder Cattle broke another 3.900 today and settled at 210.525. Today’s low of 209.150 in the Feeder’s, is also the 1-month and 52-week low. February’24 Lean Hogs gained 0.700 today and settled at 70.800, well above the 1-month and 52-week low of 65.800. I have been Bearish Cattle, and will continue to be, unless market factors change. I think it’s possible the Cattle markets can break another 10% or more, from here… That would put February’24 Live Cattle around 145-150 level. and February’24 Feeder Cattle around 180-185. If I see market conditions change, obviously my price target will change, but right now, I don’t see anything to stop the Cattle slide… it looks a lot like 2014.
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Bill Allen
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