7/1/24
The Livestock Markets were knocked lower again today. August’24 Live Cattle were $1.15 lower and settled at 184.27 ½. Today’s high was 185.15 and the 1-month high is 187.42 ½. Today’s low was 183.62 ½ and the 1-month low is 175.80. Since 5/31 August’24 Live Cattle are $5.82 ½ higher or over 3%. Feeders were down almost 3 bucks on the lows. August’24 Feeder Cattle were $1.92 ½ lower and settled at 257.37 ½. Today’s high was 259.17 ½ and the 1-month high is 263.07 ½. Today’s low was 256.40 and the 1-month low is 250.80. Since 5/31 August’24 Feeder Cattle are 75 cents higher or about ¼%. The Hogs gave a chunk back. August’24 Hogs were $1.32 ½ lower and settled at 88.17 ½. Today’s high was 91.17 ½ and the 1-month high is 97.37 ½. Today’s low was 87.85 and the 1-month low is 86.22 ½. Since 5/31 August’24 Lean Hogs are $8.35 lower or more than 8 ½%. The Livestock Markets dropped again today. The Cattle slaughter continues to slow, along with sales. The average dressed weight was 848 pounds, down two pounds from the week before, but still 39 pounds heavier from a year ago. Production was halted at Cargills Beef Plant in Dodge City Kansas, due to a roof collapse. A date to reopen the plant was not offered. The FDA study into H5N1 found the pasteurization process, when standard time and temperature were applied, works at inactivating the H5N1 virus in milk products. The 200-day moving average for August’24 Live Cattle is 178.24 ½, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 178.04, and I feel the Market will head in that direction. The August’24 Feeders traded down to 256.40 and that is just above the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 256.21. I feel there will be follow through lower this week. The Cattle still look heavy, and the Hogs look beat-up, I remain Bearish.
The Grains tried to bounce back, with Corn closing fractionally lower. November’24 Soybeans were 7 cents higher today and settled at 1111. Today’s high was 1113 and the 1-month high is 1185 ¼. Today’s low was 1097 and that is the new 1-month and 52-week low. Since 5/31 November’24 Soybeans are 73 cents lower or more than 6%. The Corn Market ended the day a little lower. December’24 Corn was ¼ cent lower today and settled at 420 ½. Today’s high was 423 ¼ and the 1-month high is 478. Today’s low was 414 ¾ and the 1-month low is 412. Since 5/31 December’24 Corn is 46 ½ cents lower or almost 10%. The Wheat Market had a nice gain today. September’24 Wheat was 16 ¾ cents higher and settled at 590 ¼. Today’s high was 591 ¾ and the 1-month high is 718 ½. Today’s low was 567 ¾ and the 1-month low is 556 ¾. Since 5/31 September’24 Wheat is $1.09 ¼ lower or more than 15 ½%. China has continued to buy large quantities of Soybeans, from Brazil, possibly foreshadowing a trade war with the U.S. The International Grains Council estimated 2024/2025 global Soybean production to be up 1 million tonnes to 415million, up 23 million tonnes from last year. November’24 Soybeans bounced after making a new contract low of 1097. I feel the Beans will remain in check with a perfect weather forecast. Last week it was reported the new incoming President of Mexico might consider allowing GOM Corn into their country. If that were to happen, it could give the Corn Market a little boost. The Corn Market could have put its lows in, and a bounce from here, with a sideways trade looks probable. The Wheat Market had a strong gain today, and the 100-Day moving average for September’24 Wheat is not far away at 615.
–Bill
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