6/28/24
The Cattle Markets fell apart in the second half of the day, as the Hogs continued to climb higher. August’24 Live Cattle were 1.02 ½ lower today and settled at 185.42 ½. Today’s high was 187.32 ½ and the 1-month high is just 10 cents higher at 187.42 ½. Today’s low was 185.07 ½ and the 1-month low is 175.80. Since 5/28 August’24 Live Cattle are $3.62 ½ higher or about 2%. The Feeders closed right on the 200-Day moving average of 259.29. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 1.35 lower today and settled at 259.30. Today’s high was 261.65 and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today’s low was 258.30 and the 1-month low is 250.80. Since 5/28 August’24 Feeder Cattle are $5.35 lower or just over 2%. The Hogs continued their climb out of the hole. August’24 Lean Hogs were $1.40 higher and settled at 89.50. Today’s high was 90.25 and the 1-month high is 97.37 ½. Today’s low was 87.65 and the 1-month low is 86.22 ½. Since 5/28 August’24 Lean Hogs are $6.57 ½ lower or almost 7%. The Cattle Markets are starting to look heavy again. The Cattle slaughter was down 6.4% from this time last year, but beef production is down only 1.8% over the same time frame. Dressed Weights are 848 pounds, 39 more pounds then this time last year. The USDA Cold Storage Report showed beef stocks fell less than the average decline last month, suggesting beef demand did not keep up with beef production last month. Beef stock for May were down about 15 million pounds, but the 5-year average decline for May is about 30 million pounds. There were two more cases of H5N1 in Iowa’s Dairy herds. That makes the 12th and 13th cases in the State. The FDA is now expanding its H5N1 testing to include many other Dairy products including cream cheese, butter, and ice cream among other products, to make sure the pasteurization process inactivates the virus. Last Fridays Cattle on Feed Report also showed placements were 5 ½% above expectations, with 152,000 more Head than the average estimate. I am still Bearish the Cattle Markets and feel a dive lower is likely.
The Grains were all lower on a wild trading day. The Beans gave back a 20-cent rally. November’24 Soybeans were ¾ of a cent lower and settled at 1104. Today’s high was 1125 and the 1-month high is 1210 ¾. Today’s low was 1100, and that is the new 1-month and 52-week low. Since 5/28 November’24 Soybeans are $1.09 ½ lower or just over 9%. The Corn had a wild ride today, and almost had a 30-cent range. December’24 Corn was 13 cents lower and settled at 420 ¾. Today’s high was 441 and the 1-month high is 485 ¾. Today’s low was 412 and that is the new 1-month and 52-week low. Since 5/28 December’24 Corn is 64 ½ cents low or about 13 ½%. Wheat continued lower with a 20-cent range. September’24 Wheat was 6 cents lower today and settled at 573 ½. Today’s high was 586 ¼ and the 1-month high is 726 ¼. Today’s low was 566 and the 1-month low is 556 ¾. Since 5/28 September’24 Wheat is $1.47 lower or about 20 ½%. The Grain Markets were all over the place after a delayed acreage and stocks report. Soybean acreage was less than expected at 86.1 compared to estimates of 86.7 million acres. Soybean stocks were higher than expectations at 970 million bushels, above the estimate of 963 million bushels. The Corn acreage was higher than expected at 91.5 million acres, with 90.3 million acres expected. Corn Stocks were higher than expected as well, and totaled 4.99 billion bushels, with estimates of 4.87 billion bushels. The Wheat acreage came in as expected at 47.24 million acres with expectations of 47.7 million acres. Wheat stocks were a little higher than expected at 702 million bushels with 683 million bushels expected. The only thing that can hurt the crops now is weather, and the forecasts look perfect. A few days ago, it was reported the new incoming President of Mexico might consider allowing GMO Corn into their country. If that were to happen, it would give the Corn Market a boost. I remain Bearish the Soybean Market, and Bullish the Corn Market. The Wheat has a good chance to rally as well. I feel the Corn Market will rally when the damage due to flooding is realized.
–Bill
I have market commentary and option charts in
Pure Hedge – Livestock
Pure Hedge – Grain
Listen Live at 7:25am on
Tuesday-Friday
Call for specific trade recommendations.
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.