6/26/24
The Livestock Markets all closed much higher today. August’24 Live Cattle were 2.32 ½ higher today and settled at 186.75. Today’s high was 187.27 ½ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 184.25 and the 1-month low is 175.80. Since 5/24 August’24 Lean Cattle are $5.62 ½ higher or just over 3%. The Feeders had a good day as well. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 2.72 ½ higher today and settled at 261.77 ½. Today’s high was 262.10 and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today’s low was 258.72 ½ and the 1-month low is 250.80. Since 5/24 August’24 Feeder Cattle are $1.55 higher or just over ½%. The Hogs had a big day, gaining over two dollars. August’24 Hogs were $2.22 ½ higher today, with a $3.20 range, and settled at 88.97 ½. Today’s high was 89.42 ½ and the 1-month high is 97.37 ½. Today’s low was 86.22 ½ and that is also the new 1-month and 52-week low. Since 5/24 August’24 Lean Hogs are $7.92 ½ lower or over 8%. It was a big day in the Cattle Markets. August’24 Live Cattle set a 1-month high and is now up 3% for the month. Cash Cattle traded to a record high last week, and that is helping to boost the Futures prices. The 4th of July will be here soon, and grocery stores have likely already purchased their beef. There is usually a seasonal drop in beef prices after the July 4th weekend, which could be a four-day weekend this year. Grocers could stop buying beef for a while. There is also a Grain Acreage Report Friday, and I believe it will be Bullish for Corn. The recent rains have flooded Corn fields from Iowa through South Dakota to Minnesota. I feel it’s time for the Corn to de-couple from the Beans and head higher. I feel there will be a big move lower in the Cattle Markets very soon. If domestic demand for beef falls, and if the price of feed increases, I feel that a sharp drop in the Cattle Markets will occur. The Hogs and Pigs Report will be released tomorrow after the close. The Hogs have dropped substantially and are still down over 8% over the last month. I don’t see a reason to sell them at these levels, with the 200-Day moving average for August’24 Hogs being $97.00 and the 50% retracement from the 52-week High/Low being $97.26 ¼. We will see how the report looks tomorrow.
The Grain Markets continued to slide lower today. November’24 Soybeans were 4 ½ cents lower and settled at 1107. Today’s high was 1119 ½ and the 1-month high is 1225. Today’s low was 1103, and that is the new 1-month and 52-week low. Since 5/24 November’24 Soybeans are $1.12 ½ lower or more than 9%. The Corn Market made new lows as well. December’24 Corn was 6 ½ lower today and settled at 436 ½. Today’s high was 447 and the 1-month high is 493. Today’s low was 435 ½ and that is the new 1-month and 52-week low as well. Since 5/24 December’24 Corn is 51 ¾ cents lower or more than 10 ½%. The Wheat Market stopped the bleeding, but only after making new lows. September’24 Wheat was unchanged today and settled at 560 ½. Today’s high was 572 ½ and the 1-month high is 739 ¼. Today’s low was 556 ¾ and that is the new 1-month low. The 52-week low is 550. Since 5/24 September’24 Wheat is $1.57 lower or almost 22%. The Grain Markets tried to rally today but could not hold on to their gains. I am expecting things to change the rest of the week. There are Corn fields under water in multiple States, and Cordonnier estimates 500,000 to 1 million acres of Corn could be lost. The weather forecast looks like there will be at least some rain falling over the entire Midwest in the next 7-10 days, with above normal precipitation in Iowa. The Acreage Report will be released on Friday and expectations are Corn stocks on June 1st to be 4.87 billion bushels, that’s above last year’s number of 4.10BB. Corn acres are expected to be 90.35 million acres, that’s above the March intentions number of 90.03MA, but below last year’s number of 94.64MA. For the Beans the June 1 stocks are expected to be 962million bushels, well above last year’s number of 796MB. Soybean acres are expected to be 86.75million acres, above the March intentions number of 86.51MA and last year’s number of 83.60million acres. The Wheat Market has imploded and had a 12-cent rally slip away today. The Russian Wheat could still be in trouble, and the next weather forecast does not look like it will help the damaged crop. This crop has already had frost damage and a lack of rain early in the growing season. June 1st Stocks are expected to be 684 million bushels, up from 570 million last year. Wheat acreage is expected to be 47.65 million acres, just above the March intention number of 47.49, and less than last year’s number of 49.57 million acres. I feel that the report on Friday will be Bearish for Soybeans and Bullish for Corn. I believe more acres of Soybeans will have been planted and fewer acres of Corn were put in the ground. I feel the Soybeans will continue to slide lower, and that we could see a big rally in the Corn. I like the 480 level in September’24 Corn. I believe the Corn and Wheat Markets have a great chance to rally.
–Bill
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