Pure Hedge – Livestock and Grain

Bill Allen General Commentary

11/27/23

I no longer see a floor in the cattle market. I think there is a long way to go before cattle finds a bottom, and I have been recommending option trades in October’24 Cattle, based on my belief of a continual decline in prices. I have said that any strength in the Cattle and Soybean markets is an opportunity to short the market, and today was no different. There was a bounce in the cattle markets this morning, but it did not last long. February’24 Live Cattle closed 2.150 lower again today and settled at 168.825, just above today’s low of 168.625, which is also the 1-month low and still above the 52-week low of 164.650. January’24 Feeder Cattle fell another 6.525 and settled at 212.800, just above today’s low and the 1-month low of 121.125. Hogs continued their slide as well. February’24 Lean Hogs broke another 1.850 today and settled at 66.925, above today’s low, the 1-month low and the 52-week low of 66.825. The Grain markets were not much better today. The grain markets also tried to rally today but turned around and headed South quickly. January’24 Soybeans gave back 1 cent today and settled at 1329 ¾, today’s low was 1323 ½. March’24 Corn continued to tumble today and dropped another 7 ½ cents and settled at 475 ¼, just 2 ¼ cents above today’s low, the 1-month low and the 52-week low of 473. Wheat has been an All-Star at breaking, and it did not disappoint today. March’24 Wheat dropped another 16 ¼ cents today and settled at 561. Today’s low, the 1-month low and the 52-week low in March’24 Wheat was 556 ¼. YTD March’24 Wheat is down $2.64 ½ cents, more than 32%. I still like the $13.00 level for January’24 Soybeans, and after that I believe they will slide down to $11.50. I recommend hedging in July’24 Soybeans now. There is risk in everything, but I see opportunity in the Option markets.

I have market commentary and option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock

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BAllen@walshtrading.com 

Bill Allen

Senior Account Executive

Direct:      1 312 957 8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

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