Pure Hedge – Livestock and Grain

Bill AllenGeneral Commentary

5/31/24

The Cattle Markets were lower again today. August’24 Live Cattle were 1.32 ½ lower today and settled at 178.45. Today’s high was 179.77 ½ and the 1-month high is 182.15. Today’s low was 177.77 ½ and the 1-month low is 170.07 ½. Since 4/30 August’24 Live Cattle are 3.90 higher or just over 2%. The Feeders tripped again today. August’24 Feeder Cattle were 2.67 ½ lower today and settled at 256.40. Today’s high was 259 and the 1-month high is 264.95. Today’s low was 255.80 and the 1-month low is 249.05. Since 4/30 August Feeder Cattle are 90 Cents higher or almost ½%. The Hogs stayed positive again. July’24 Lean Hogs were 17 ½ cents higher today and settled at 97.12 ½. Today’s high was 97.50 and the 1-month high is 106.37 ½. Today’s low was 96.32 ½ and the 1-month low is 95.87 ½. Since 4/30 July’24 Lean Hogs are 8.30 lower or almost 8%. Keep an eye on the $95.00 level in July’24 Hogs. Beef Export Sales were awful. The number came in below 16,000mt, down 27% from the week before. Export shipments were not much better, just above 16,000mt bust still down 7% from the week before. As expected, the cash prices have fallen as well. A new report of Bird Flu could have helped to push the market below the 200-Day moving average. The US Stock market breaking today did not help the Cattle Markets as well. (The US Stock markets took off today after the Livestock and Grain Markets were closed). I feel that the Cattle Markets will have to make a big decision on which way to move shortly. I have six August’24 Feeder Cattle charts below. Take a new look at them. They range from 5-days to 15-years. There is a September’24 Soybean chart on the bottom as well. It looks like a potential large move lower is very possible in the Cattle Markets. I recommend selling into any strength, and protecting your downside exposure, if you have not already done that. Hoping for a third bounce is not the best plan. I can help, give me a call.  

      The Grains all continued lower today, and the Corn and Soybeans closed near their lows. July’24 Soybeans were 4 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1205. Today’s high was 1223 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1258 ¼. Today’s low was 1202 ¾ and the 1-month low is 1156 ¼. Since 4/30 July’24 Soybeans are 42 cents higher or just over 3 ½%. The Corn gave a little back today. July’24 Corn was 2 ½ cents lower today and settled at 446 ¼. Today’s high was 453 ¾ and the 1-month high is 475 ½. Today’s low was 445 ½ and the 1-month low is 443 ¾. Since 4/30 July’24 Corn is ½ a cent lower or fractionally lower. The Wheat was lower as well. July’24 Wheat was 2 ½ cents lower today and settled at 678 ½. Today’s high was 691 ½ and the 1-month high is 720. Today’s low was 673 ¾ and the 1-month low is 593 ½. Since 4/30 July’24 Wheat is 75 ¼ cents higher or almost 12 ½%. As you know, I am Bearish the Soybean Market. There has been some support getting down to the $12.00 level. If the Beans do bounce higher, I recommend selling into any strength. The plantings went well, and the weather looks perfect. I still feel more Soybeans were planted in the US than expected or reported, but we will find out this fall. If the Soybeans do break, I would expect a fire sale to 1160, before heading lower. There are plenty of Beans available, and if China does not start buying the new crop, there will be a problem. Understand that I don’t want the markets to break, but what I see makes me think they will. I feel it’s a real possibility to see $11.00 Soybeans before harvest. I believe the Corn and Wheat Markets have the best upside potential. Have a great weekend. 

There are Feeder Cattle and Soybean Charts in the Barchart article link below.

Pure Hedge – Livestock And Grain (barchart.com)

Bill

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Bill Allen

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