3/27/24
It was generally a slow day, compared to the recent volatility. Tomorrow at 11:00am central time, the Planting Intentions Report will be released and whether Bearish or bullish, there will be plenty of price action. The Livestock Markets were all a little higher today. June’24 Live Cattle was 30 cents higher and settled at 178.675 in the middle of today’s trading range. Today’s high was 179.325 and the 1-month high is 186.625. Today’s low was 177.175 and the 1-month low is 176.400. Since 2/27 June’24 Live Cattle is 4.77 ½ lower or about 2 ½%. The Feeders gained the most today. May’24 Feeder Cattle were 1.02 ½ higher and settled at 248.27 ½, not far from today’s high of 248.75. The 1-month high is 261.12 ½. Today’s low was 246.00, just above the 1-month low of 245.42 ½. Since 2/27 May’24 Feeder Cattle are 12.72 ½ lower or almost 5%. The Hogs gained as well today. June’24 Lean Hogs were 25 cents higher today and settled at 101.60, just above today’s low of 101.25. The 1-month low is 98.62 ½. Today’s high was 102.42 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 103.47 ½. Since 2/27 June’24 Lean Hogs are 2.25 higher or mor than 2%. The Cattle Markets have been smacked lower recently and I feel this is just the beginning. We will have to see where the cash market is trading. Coming off the Bearish Cattle on Feed Report, and record cash trades, we will see what the packers decide to do. Argentina’s February beef exports were huge and a 57-year high. Argentina exported 82.548 mt of beef in February. Thats the largest monthly total since 1967. During January and February of this year, Argentina’s beef exports reached a record 160,478mt, and more than 75% of it was going to China. With placements in feedlots here up 10% from last year and higher weights, along with poor export numbers, and imports from Mexico, I see the break continuing in the Cattle Markets. The 2014-2015 Chart looks VERY similar to 2023-2024. I see slowing demand here and with China’s continued lack of interest buying U.S. Beef or Grain, I feel the Cattle Market will collapse, and my downside target levels for June’24 Live Cattle are 176.00 and then 169.00, and for May’24 Feeder Cattle 245.00 and then 234.00. The Soybean Market continued to break today. May’24 Soybeans were 6 ½ cents lower and settled at 1192 ½. Today’s high was 1198 and the 1-month high is 1226 ¾. Today’s low was 1189 ½ and the 1-month low and 52-week low is 1128 ½. Since 2/27 May’24 Soybeans are 51 ¾ cents higher or 4 ½%. Corn was also lower today. May’24 Corn was 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 426 ¾, just above today’s low of 426 ¼. The 1-month low is 421 ¾. Today’s high was 432 ¼ and the 1-month high is 445 ¾. Since 2/27 May’24 Corn is 3 ¼ cents higher or close to 1%. Wheat had a gain today. May’24 Wheat was 4 cents higher today and settled at 547 ½, just 2 cents below today’s high of 549 ½. The 1-month high is 585. Today’s low was 538 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 523 ½. Since 2/27 May’24 Wheat is 36 ¾ cents lower or over 6%. Planting intentions are released tomorrow, and I feel there will be more acres switched from Corn to Soybeans. If that happens, I believe it will stabilize the Corn Market, and the Soybeans will head lower. If the Beans head lower my downside targets are 1177, then 1150 and then 1128 ½ which is the 1-month and 52-week contract low. I will have more tomorrow. Get ready for a busy day.
3/25/24 15-Year May’24 Feeder Cattle Chart Below
-Bill
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