2/14/24
All the Grains and the Cattle Markets were lower today, and I don’t believe it’s over yet. The Fats broke today but came off the session lows. April’24 Live Cattle was 1.100 lower today and settled at 184.000, in the middle of today’s range. Today’s high was 185.125 and the low was 182.825. The 1-month high is 187.575 and the 1-month low is 173.525. Since 1/12 April’24 Live Cattle are 9.825 high or over 5 ½%. The Feeders also gave some back today. March’24 Feeder Cattle were 1.775 lower today and settled at 246.225. Today’s high was 248.400 and the low was 243.550. The 1-month high is 249.900 and the 1-monnth low is 226.875. Since 1/12 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 18.525 higher or over 8%. The Hogs had a nice gain today. April’24 Lean Hogs were 3.450 higher today and settled at 246.225, just below today’s high of 84.725. Today’s low was 81.250. The 1-month high is not far away at 85.925, and the 1-month low is 76.725. Since 1/12 Lean Hogs are 5.900 higher or 7 ½%. The Grain Markets all broke today, as some of us were expecting. March’24 Soybeans were another 15 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1170 ½, just above today’s low of 1168 ¼, which is also the 1-month low. Today’s high was 1190 and the 1-month high is 1247 ½. The 52-week low is still 1145 ¼, for now. Since 1/12 March’24 Soybeans are 53 ¾ cents lower or over 4%. The Corn continues to follow the Soybeans lower. March’24 Corn fell another 6 ½ cents today and settled at 424 ½, just above today’s low of 422 ¼, Today’s low is the 1-month and the 52-week low as well. Today’s high was 431 and the 1-month high is 453 ¼. Since 1/12 March’24 Corn is 22 ¾ cents lower or just over 5%. The Wheat Market continued to break as well. March’24 Wheat dropped 12 cents today and settled at 585 ½, in the middle of today’s trading range. Today’s high was 597 ¾ and the 1-month high is 617 ¼. Today’s low was 577 ½. The 1-month low is 573 4 and the 52-week low is 556 ¼. Since 1/12 March’24 Wheat is 10 ½ cents lower or almost 2%. The Cattle Markets were lower today but bounced off of their lows. I am still Bearish the Cattle market. I feel it’s going to be a short period of time, until the break I am expecting arrives. When it does arrive, I feel it will be vicious and unmistakable. I highly recommend protecting your downside exposure. Hoping for $200 Live Cattle is not a solid business plan. The Grain Markets continued their slide south today, and I feel the rest of the break is now inevitable. In my opinion, Soybeans are simply overpriced. I believe there will be another big push lower in the Soybean Market, and the Corn will continue to follow. Once again, please protect your downside exposure in these markets. If you do not, and I am right, what happens? I will be in Houston on the 28th for the Commodity Classic. I hope to see you there.
-Bill
312-957-8079
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Bill Allen
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