5/9/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed, with the Fats and Feeders making new contract highs again today. The Fats settled right in the middle of today’s trading range and stayed positive today. June’25 Live Cattle were 42 ½ cents higher today and settled at 214.67 ½. Today’s high was 215.60 and that is the new contract high as well. Today’s low was 213.57 ½ and the 1-month low is 194.12 ½. Since 4/9 June’25 Live Cattle are 16.30 higher or more than 8%. The August’25 Feeders settled above 300.00 again today. August’25 Feeder Cattle were 95 cents lower today and settled at 300.30. Today’s high was 301.90 and that is the new contract high as well. Today’s low was 299.12 ½ and the 1-month low is 278.97 ½. Since 4/9 August’25 Feeder Cattle are 17.07 ½ higher or more than 6%. The Hogs made a gain today. June’25 Hogs were 40 cents higher today and settled at 97.57 ½. Today’s high was 97.95 and the 1-month high is 101.97 ½. Today’s low was 96.90 and the 1-month low is 91.12 ½. Since 4/9 June’25 Lean Hogs are 5.97 ½ higher or about 6 ½%. Enough is enough, and this Cattle bubble could burst shortly. I have received many phone calls the last two days from Ranchers looking to hedge and getting more information on how to do it in the Option Markets. I appreciate the calls and the opening of new accounts. If you are not hedged in the Fats or Feeders, why not? There is no point in throwing money away if these markets turnaround from record high levels. If you would like more information on how to put on protection in the Option Markets, just give me a call, this is what I do. I can get your account open in 1-2 days as well. The Fats and Feeders made new contract highs again, and I feel the top is in or near, and a break from here is eminent. The June’25 Fats settled almost a buck off the high today, but did manage to stay positive. I still like the 190 level in the June’25 Fats and feel a 10% pullback is a respectable amount for starters. A 10% move would be 21.46 and put the market at 193.21 ½. The 1-month low is 194.12 ½, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 192.92 ½, with the 200-Day moving average below at 188.60. The August’25 Feeders closed 95 cents lower today and settled 1.20 off the high. Hope you sold them all today and if not, I hope you hedged them. If you still need to protect your downside risk, call me. Whenever the Feeders break, it will be something to see. I still like the 260-265 level for starters, and that could end up being the halfway point of the break. If the market breaks just 10%, it would be a move of 30.03 and put the price at 270.27. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low in the August’25 Feeders is 269.01, and just 1.26 below the 10% pullback number. The June’25 Hogs were positive today but are getting close to the low end of my range. Today’s low of 96.90 is just 85 cents from the bottom of my trading range of 96.05. If the June’25 Hogs were to drop 10% from here, it would be a loss of 9.75 ½ and put the price at 87.82. There are a few great ways to put hedges on in these markets right now, and I would be happy to speak with you about it. They are called record levels for a reason.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. Take advantage of any pullbacks in these markets. NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT.
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The Grain Markets were mixed again today, with the Beans and Bean Oil looking good. The Beans rallied 11 ¼ cents off the lows today and still looked like they were holding back. July’25 Soybeans were 6 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 1051 ¾. Today’s high was 1058 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1067 ½. Today’s low was 1040 ½ and the 1-month low is 1020 ¾. Since 4/9 July’25 Soybeans are 28 ¼ cents higher or almost 3%. The Corn stayed positive again today with another narrow trading range. July’25 Corn was 2 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 449 ¾. Today’s high was 455 and the 1-month high is 497 ½. Today’s low was 447 and the 1-month low is 442 ¼. Since 4/9 July’25 Corn is 30 ¾ cents lower or almost 6 ½%. The Wheat Market slipped lower today. July’25 Wheat was 7 ½ cents lower today and settled at 521 ¾. Today’s high was 533 ¾ and the 1-month high is 571. Today’s low was 520 ¾ and that is the new contract low as well. Since 4/9 July’25 Wheat is 34 cents lower or more than 6%. The spark as lit the fuse, and explosive upside potential now exists in the Grain Markets. The Soybean Oil can get a double boost from both the trade deals and from an increase in biofuel blend rates, which are expected to come sometime very soon. There is a WASDE Report on Monday and that could add fuel to the markets as well. I still like the Soybean Oil upside the most and feel we can see a very large price increase in that market. September’25 Bean Oil settled at 48.71 today and I think we can see it trade into the 60’s. The Natural Gas Market has quietly made a charge back and the August’25 Natural Gas settled at 4.169 today, up almost 3% for the week. I still feel we can see that market above 6.00 as well. The July’25 Soybeans look good as they settled above the 1050 level and all the moving averages. I still like the July’25 Beans over 1100 with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low being 1102 ¼. My next level higher from there is 1134 ½. The July’25 Corn settled just below the 450 level, but did have a gain on the day. It would be nice to see the July’25 Corn settle above the 200-Day moving average of 461 ¼. If the Corn heads higher, I like the 417 ½ level. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 471 5/8 and the 50-Day moving average is 471 ¾. The Wheat took a hit today, but I feel it was another buying opportunity. A new contract low was set in the July’25 Corn at 520 ¾, but I only see upside from here. I still like the July’25 Wheat at the 200-Day moving average of 583 ¼ and then power ahead to the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low at 638. The next few weeks should be very interesting in all of these Markets. I remain Bullish the Grains and Bearish the Cattle Markets. Have a great weekend.
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I appreciate your business.
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If you don’t like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving at your new and very large brokerage house, you have options, and you don’t have to stay there.
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50-Year Cattle Chart Below. Whenever it Breaks it Will Be a Spectacular Collapse.
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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