4/22/25
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The Livestock Markets simply can’t be stopped, some would say. The Fats gained another 2-bucks today. June’25 Live Cattle were 2.52 ½ higher today and settled at 206.27 ½. Today’s high was 206.77 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 204.35 and the 1-month low is 191.80. Since 3/21 June’25 Live Cattle are 3.80 higher or almost 2%. The Feeders were only a dollar and change higher today. May’25 Feeder Cattle were 1.40 higher today and settled at 28692 ½. Today’s high was 288.25 and the 1-month high is 288.65. Today’s low was 286.05 and the 1-month low is 267.20. Since 3/21 May’25 Feeder Cattle are 2.15 higher or almost 1%. The Hogs made new highs as well today. June’25 Hogs were 2.22 ½ higher today and settled at 100.27 ½. Today’s high was 100.67 ½ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 98.10 and the 1-month low is 88.00. Since 3/21 June’25 Lean Hogs are 2.92 ½ higher or 3%. The Cattle Markets continue to climb higher and higher with no need to look below… at least some people think that, but I do not. Hedging is more important now than ever. When the Cattle Markets correct, having protection will be essential. I can structure a hedge plan specifically for you, and all you have to do is ask. The volatility in these markets is wild and is not going away anytime soon. There will be a time when the music stops, so I highly recommend hedging everything moving forward. I still like the same levels, for the same reasons. I like the 190 level for the June’25 Fats. The 100-Day moving average is 193.84, the 1-month low is 191.80, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 188.98, and the 200-Day moving average is 186.79. The contract low is 170.25 and that is 36.02 ½ below today’s settlement price so you are aware. The May’25 Feeders traded to within 40 cents of the 1-month high of 288.65 and settled just 3.70 below the contract high of 290.62 ½. I still like the 260 level for starters and when they break, it will be too late to lock in a floor with the current pricing. Hedging in this market is a necessity, and if asked, I will provide many examples of how to cover your ‘you know what’ if the market heads South. Just below 260 in the May’25 Feeders sits the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 259.13, and the 200-Day moving average is 257.59. The Hogs rebounded and never stopped. Today settled above all the moving averages and made a new monthly high of 100.67 ½. I thought the 100-Day moving average of 99.50 would keep them in check, but it looks like they will try to head toward the contract high of 106.35. I feel that selling them anywhere between the contract high and current levels would work out alright, and I am looking for a return to the 96.05 level. Production looks heavy everywhere, and I would not want to get caught long at these levels. You don’t have to hedge anything, but you might wish you had at some point. I will be here if needed.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. I like The Wheat at 650, still. Watch the Soybean Oil Run Higher from Here. NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT. Sign Up Now
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The Grain Markets were mixed with the Beans pushing higher today. The Beans closed over a nickel higher today. July’25 Soybeans were 5 ½ cents higher today and settled at 1046. Today’s high was 1051 ½ and the 1-month high is 1059. Today’s low was 1041 and the 1-month low is 985. Since 3/21 July’25 Soybeans are 24 ½ cents higher or more than 2%. The Corn took a step back today. July’25 Corn was 6 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 485 ¼. Today’s high was 491 ¾ and the 1-month high is 497 ½. Today’s low was 482 ½ and the 1-month low is 450 ½. Since 3/21 July’25 Corn is 11 ¾ cents higher or about 2 ½%. The Wheat Market gave a couple cents back today. July’25 Wheat was 2 cents lower today and settled at 550 ¼. Today’s high was 555 ¼ and the 1-month high is 579 ¼. Today’s low was 545 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract low is 532 ½. Since 3/21 July’25 Wheat is 24 ¼ cents lower or more than 4%. The Beans tried to take off again today, but stalled out just above the 1050 level, however, a gain on the day is positive. The tariff negotiations are keeping all the Grain Markets in check for now, but I do not see that lasting much longer. When or if the trade deals are finalized, the news could send everything straight up. I feel that Producers, Users, Funds and Traders will continue to hold these Grain Markets up, as they begin to get long these markets for fear of missing out on a trade deal rally. There is also demand for the Grain’s and any weather problem could produce a rally on its own. There are some rains coming, but we will have to wait and see where it lands. The Wheat crop looks worse than it did last week, and if that does not change soon, we could see much higher Wheat prices, as it is the second smallest Wheat planting since 1919. The July’25 Soybeans traded ¼ of a cent through the 200-Day moving average but were unable to sustain the rally. I feel the Beans need to settle over the 1050 ¼ level and take out the 1-month high of 1059. From there I think we can see the Beans head toward the 1103 ¾ level, and that is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. I feel we can see a new 1-month high this week, and if not, then after the May’25 Options expire on Friday. The July’25 Corn settled just a penny off the lows today and will need to get a boost from the rest of the Grain complex. Increased planting acreage has put a temporary cap on the Corn market, but if planting is delayed, or a trade deal reached, then there is plenty of room on the upside. I like the Wheat, and I feel the 644 level in the July’25 contract is realistic. The Soybean Oil looked great this morning but dropped off the high of the day. The July’25 Bean Oil rebounded after the break and closed over the 48.00 level, at 48.03. The Soybean Oil is close to what I feel are breakout levels. The High is July’25 Bean Oil was 48.84 today. Today’s high is just 0.17 from the 1-month high of 49.01 and just 0.62 from the contract high of 49.46. In the September’25 contract the 1-month and contract high is 48.80 and today’s high was just 0.23 from that level. I believe the real rally will begin just after those levels are taken out. If the contract highs are traded through, I feel it can be a significant move higher toward the 65.00 level. Let me know if I can help in any way. Have a great night.
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I appreciate your business.
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I feel the July’25 Soybeans can trade: 11.20 or higher
I feel the July’25 Corn can trade: 5.20 or higher
I feel the July’25 Wheat can trade: 6.50 or higher
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If you don’t like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving at your new and very large brokerage house, you have options, and you don’t have to stay there.
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*Starting this week, I will have the Walsh Gamma Trader every Monday, and Pure Hedge – Livestock and Grain every Tuesday and Thursday. *
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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