4/17/25
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The Livestock Markets rallied into the Cattle on Feed Report today. The Fats gained 2-bucks today. June’25 Live Cattle were 2.00 higher today and settled at 204.07 ½. Today’s high was 204.35 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 202.22 ½ and the 1-month low is 191.80. Since 3/17 June’25 Live Cattle are 2.95 higher or more than 1%. The Feeders settled over 2 bucks higher today. May’25 Feeder Cattle were 2.45 higher today and settled at 286.85. Today’s high was 286.97 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 290.62 ½. Today’s low was 284.92 ½ and the 1-month low is 267.20. Since 3/17 May’25 Feeder Cattle are 1.52 ½ higher or about ½%. The Hogs were able to stay positive again today. June’25 Hogs were 7 ½ cents higher today and settled at 98.02 ½. Today’s high was 98.85 and the 1-month high is 99.32 ½. Today’s low was 97.27 ½ and the 1-month low is 88.00. Since 3/17 June’25 Lean Hogs are 1.10 lower or more than 1%. The Cattle Markets continued to climb today, even before a Cattle on Feed Report. It seemed as though someone knew something with the expiring April’25 contract up 3.40 and the Feeder Index jumping 5.54 to a record 293.57. The Cattle on Feed Report looks a little Bearish to me. Cattle on Feed was 98.4% with an estimate of 98.2%. The Placement was higher than expected at 105.1% with an average estimate of 103.4%, and Marketings were 101.1% with an average estimate of 100.6%. If you are buying them, do yourself a favor a hedge them. The prices are very elevated and could have a big break soon. What would happen if the Market broke 20 or 40 dollars and you are not hedged… I still like the 190 level in the June’25 Fats. The 100-Day moving average is 193.44, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 188.09, with the 200-Day moving average sitting just below at 186.59. The Feeders could break even more. I still like the 260-265 level in the May’25 Feeders. the 100-Day moving average is 269.98, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 259.13, and the 200-Day moving average is 257.37 – almost $30.00 lower, so protect yourself. The June’25Hogs have rebounded and are now above the 96.05 level, which is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low, and the 200-Day moving average of 96.31. They will probably bounce around between the 96 levels and the 100-Day moving average of 99.52, until there is new market information, or the Cattle tank. Be careful out there and let me know if I can help.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. I like The Wheat at 650, still. Watch the Soybean Oil Run Higher from Here. NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT.
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The Grain Markets were mixed before the three-day weekend today. The Beans closed a couple cents lower today. July’25 Soybeans were 2 ½ cents lower today and settled at 1047 ¾. Today’s high was 1056 ½ and the 1-month high is 1059. Today’s low was 1043 and the 1-month low is 985. Since 3/17 July’25 Soybeans are 18 ½ cents higher or almost 2%. The Corn dropped less than 2 cents today. July’25 Corn was 1 ½ cents lower today and settled at 490 ¼. Today’s high was 494 and the 1-month high is 497 ½. Today’s low was 489 and the 1-month low is 450 ½. Since 3/17 July’25 Corn is 20 ¼ cents higher or more than 4%. The Wheat Market held back again today. July’25 Wheat was 1 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 562 ¼. Today’s high was 569 ¼ and the 1-month high is 591. Today’s low was 561 ¼ and the 1-month and 52-week contract low is 532 ½. Since 3/17 July’25 Wheat is 22 ¾ cents lower or almost 4%. The Grains looked ready to explode again today, and I feel we can see that happen after the three-Day Easter weekend. The July’25 Soybeans traded to within 2 ½ cents of the 1-month high of 1059 and traded above all the major averages as well. It slipped lower late in the day and settled just 4 ½ cents below the 200-Day moving average. I still feel we will see a big jump up in the Beans, and I like the 1103 ¾ level for starters, and that is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. The July’25 Corn had just a 5-cent range today and settled a little lower. The demand for Corn remains strong and I feel we can see a rally from here. The Wheat Market look poised to take off today, but we will have to wait and see what happens next week. I am very Bullish the Wheat Market and think we can see it trade much higher. Today’s high was just 3-cents below the 100-Day moving average. I feel we can see it trade through there and head to the 590 level for starters. 589 is the 200-Day moving average and 591 is the 1-month high. I feel we can see it trade up to the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 644 and then higher from there. The Soybean Oil looks great and could truly explode higher next week. The July’25 Bean Oil is just 1.12 from the contract high. If it trades through there next week, it will be off to the races. The September’25 contract traded to within 45 cents of the contract high and settled just 68 cents away. If any trade deal is reached or even rumored over the long weekend or next week, or biofuel blends are increased, we can see the Bean Oil trade into the mid 60’s and higher. It could be a very unique time to be long these markets, and there will still be time to capitalize on it early next week. Let’s get your account opened early Monday morning, and active before the end of the day. Happy Easter Everyone
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I feel the July’25 Soybeans can trade: 11.20 or higher
I feel the July’25 Corn can trade: 5.20 or higher
I feel the July’25 Wheat can trade: 6.50 or higher
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Give me a call if you have any questions.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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