4/7/25
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The Livestock Markets continued lower today, as the Fats, and Feeders, lost multiple dollars today. The Fats were down more than the Feeders today and lost another 4.00. June’25 Live Cattle were 4.02 ½ lower today and settled at 194.17 ½. Today’s high was 199.40 and the 1-month and contract high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 194.02 ½ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 3/7 June’25 Live Cattle are 2.30 lower or more than 1%. The Feeders broke more than 3.00 today on a 10.00 range day. May’25 Feeder Cattle were 3.60 lower today and settled at 271.27 ½. Today’s high was 277.20 and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 290.62 ½. Today’s low was 267.20 and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 3/7 May’25 Feeder Cattle are 6.92 ½ lower or 2 ½%. The Hogs lost a buck and a half today. June’25 Lean Hogs were 1.50 lower today and settled at 90.05. Today’s high was 92.65 and the 1-month high is 99.70. Today’s low was 88.70 and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 3/7 June’25 Lean Hogs are 8.05 lower or more than 8%. The Dow Jones Index last night was down about 1800 points and it looked the Livestock Markets could be limit down again this morning, but it never got that low before the markets recovered somewhat. The Livestock Markets all made new 1-month lows today. The June’25 Fats were down 4.17 ½ on their lows, and did not close well, settling just 15 cents higher from there. The May’25 Feeders were down 7.67 ½ on the low, but were able to climb higher from there, settling 4.07 ½ above the lows of the day. The June’25 Hogs were 2.85 lower today on the lows and traded down to 88.70. The June’25 Hogs were barely able to make it above 90.00 before the bell and closed at 90.05. I still think there is upside in the Hog Market, but I am not so sure about the Cattle Markets. I still feel we can see the June’25 Fats trade down to the 190 level, and that has been my first target lower for a while. The 100-Day moving average is 192.23, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 188.98, and the 200-Day moving average is 186.03. The May Feeders were only 7.20 away from the low end of my 260-265 range on the lows today. The May’25 Feeders also traded 27 cents through the 100-Day moving average of 267.47 today. I like the same levels and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 259.13, and the 200-Day moving average is 256.67. The 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 96.05 for the June Hogs. We will see what the funds decide to do with the rest of their long position tomorrow, but if there is another big move lower, the widget sellers will smell blood in the water and push it lower looking for stops.
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I see two big trades for this year. I still like the Soybean Oil and the Natural Gas. These markets will correct. I like The Wheat at 650.
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The Grain Markets made some gains today. The Beans settled above the middle of today’s range, on a 24-cent range day. May’25 Soybeans were 6 cents higher today and settled at 983. Today’s high was 993 ½ and the 1-month high is 1034 ¾. Today’s low was 969 ½ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 3/7 May’25 Soybeans are 42 cents lower or more than 4%. The Corn was higher again today. May’25 Corn was 4 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 464 ½. Today’s high was 467 ½ and the 1-month high is 477 ½. Today’s low was 454 ¼ and the 1-month low is 442. Since 3/7 May’25 Corn is 4 ¾ cents higher or about 1%. The Wheat Market fought back today. May’25 Wheat was 7 ½ cents higher today and settled at 536 ½. Today’s high was 536 ½ and the 1-month high is 575 ¼. Today’s low was 525 ¾ and the 1-month, and 52-week contract low is 517 ½. Since 3/7 May’25 Wheat is 14 ¾ cents lower or almost 3%. The Grain made a big turnaround this morning after false rumors sent the stock markets into positive territory for brief moment. The May’25 Soybeans traded as high as 993 ½ today, only to fall back about a dime off the highs. It was good to see the May’25 Beans up 16 ½ cents, if only for a few minutes. That does tell me that the Beans and the rest of the Grain are ready to run higher when the time is right and could even decouple from the movement of the Stock Markets. The May’25 Corn looked good again and settled 10 cents above the lows of the day. The May Wheat was 18 cents higher on the highs today but ended up closing 10 cents below the high. It was clear that the Wheat wanted to take off today, and I feel we will see that happen soon. I still like the May’25 Soybeans at the 1050 level and then 1100. The 200-Day moving average is 1045 ¼, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 1096. The May’25 Corn settled 2 cents below the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low, and just 4 ¼ cents below the 100-Day moving average of 468 ¾. I still like the 500 level. The May’25 Wheat will be fun to watch if it takes off soon. Today it traded 3 ½ cents from the 550 level, and I feel we can see it trade up to and through the 200-day moving average of 583 ¾ and then make its way up to the 650 level if it is able to take off. I still feel the Soybean Oil is a prime candidate for explosive growth. The Septembner’25 Soybean Oil settled at 45.22 but traded almost 1.50 higher from there on the high of the day at 46.71. This market wants to run higher as well I feel. Today, President Trump said what I have been waiting to hear, and what could be the catalyst for the way higher. President Trump said today that the European Union needs to buy US energy. He said there is a $350 Billion trade deficit, and they can make that up by purchasing US gas and Oil. This is exactly why I have been recommending buying Natural Gas for months. I highly recommend being long this contract and still feel it can trade 65 or higher.
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The stock Markets are down significantly, and Netanyahu is meeting with President Trump at the White House today. The Leaders of Iran have continued to threaten President Trump. President Trump today said that there is a meeting with Iran on Saturday, direct talks. President Trump has stated that if there is not a deal made with Iran, then there would be a military response. It has been assumed it could be a joint strike with multiple nations, and I doubt there would be an attack until Netanyahu was back in Isreal. However, why not do it while the Stock Markets are already getting pounded with the tariff situation. Acting now, might take the sting out of any military attacks effect on the US Stock Markets and might be the perfect time. It would be unexpected, and also cause the energy sector to rebound, along with other commodities that have been knocked down. It could also help explain why OPEC has decided to triple its output, helping to cap any huge rally in Crude Oil.
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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