3/7/25
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The Cattle Markets sored higher today, with the April’25 Fats closing 4.00 higher, and the April’25 Feeders closing close to 4.00 higher. The April’25 Fats set a new 1-month high today. April’25 Live Cattle were 4.00 higher today and settled at 200.27 ½. Today’s high was 200.27 ½ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 196.40 and the 1-month low is 189.50. Since 2/7 April’25 Live Cattle are 3.57 ½ higher or almost 2%. The Feeders traded into the stratosphere today. April’25 Feeder Cattle were 3.72 ½ higher today and settled at 278.15. Today’s high was 278.75 and that is the new 1-month high as well, and just 87 ½ cents below the 52-week high of 279.02 ½. Today’s low was 274.12 ½, and the 1-month low is 262.90. Since 2/7 April’25 Feeder Cattle are 13.70 higher or more than 5%. The Hogs continued higher today. April’25 Lean Hogs were 70 cents higher today and settled at 87.35. Today’s high was 87.50 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 94.75. Today’s low was 86.37 ½ and the 1-month low is 80.72 ½. Since 2/7 April’25 Lean Hogs are 4.87 ½ lower or more than 5%. Just sell them, sell them Monday early and often, that is what I would do. The Cattle prices are unsustainable and are wide open to tariff and trade deal exposure. We still have Cattle coming across the border from Mexico, along with Cattle moving South from Canada. The cutout was down 2.29 today at 273.77. The contract high for April’25 Fats is 207.72 ½, and that would be an additional 7.45 added on to today’s settlement price. The April’25 Fats have not traded over 200 since 2/6 when they traded 201.12 ½. I think we will see most USMCA products exempt from tariffs. I believe the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 191.62 ½ is my first stop lower for the Arpil’25 Fats. The April’24 Feeders made a new 1-month high and settled just 87 ½ cents from the contract high of 279.02 ½. We have seen this movie before, and I anticipate another break in the market. The wax is melting, and the Feeders need to drop lower fast. I live the 269.18 ½ level for starters on the downside. The Hogs continue to rebound, and I Feel they have room to run higher. I like the 88.60 level on the upside and then targeting the 1-month high of 94.75. Next week will be interesting.
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The Grain Markets were mixed today, with the Corn, Beans, and Wheat staying in about a 10-cent range. May’25 Soybeans were 2 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 1025. Today’s high was 1031 ½ and the 1-month high is 1072 ¾. Today’s low was 1021 and the 1-month low is 991. Since 2/7 May’25 Soybeans are 39 ¼ cents lower or more than 3%. The Corn market had a nice gain today. May’25 Corn was 5 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 469 ¼. Today’s high was 471 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 518 ¾. Today’s low was 460 ¾ and the 1-month low is 442 ¼. Since 2/7 May’25 Corn is 30 ¾ cents lower or more than 6%. The Wheat Market was negative again today. May’25 Wheat was 2 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 551 ¼. Today’s high was 555 ½ and the 1-month high is 621 ¾. Today’s low was 544 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week low is 530. Since 2/7 May’25 Wheat is 43 cents lower or more than 7%. Well, that worked out pretty well in the Grains. The Corn, Beans, and Wheat hit all of my low levels, and traded lower from there. The Grains will continue to be very volatile for the next month. Until the tariffs are figured out, or New Trade Deals are announced, the Grains will be trading sideways from current levels. Brazilian Crops look perfect, and acreage here has shifted. There is always the fear of a lack of rain, but there is still time for that to develop. However, if the rains in the plains do not arrive, we will have a weather market here, and that will overshadow the South American crops. What I think can happen is a rally in the Soybean complex, led by the Soybean Oil. I continued to buy calls and sell puts today in the Bean Oil. September’25 Soybean Oil settled at 43.66 today, and I like the 65.00 level. Give me a call if you would like to know where that puts the Beans or the Bean Meal. The other market I like is the Natural Gas Market. I continue to buy calls and sell puts there as well. August’25 Natural Gas settled at 4.80, and I like it over 6.00. A 1.00 move in that market is $10,000/per contract. There is a lot going on in the world, and that will never change. It’s time to take advantage of all markets, not just the one’s in your comfort zone. Give me call and let’s talk about it.
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It was a pleasure to meet everyone at the Commodity Classic in Denver, and at Cattle Con last month in San Antoino. If I can do anything for you, please give me a call.
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August’25 Natural Gas 5-Year Chart Below.
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September’25 Soybean Oil 5-Year Chart Below.
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It was a pleasure to meet everyone at the Commodity Classic in Denver, and at Cattle Con last month in San Antoino. If I can do anything for you, please give me a call.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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