2/24/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed, with the Fats and Feeders trading higher today. The Fats were slow again today but still gained almost a buck and a half. April’25 Live Cattle was 1.15 higher today and settled at 195.10. Today’s high was 195.35 and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 193.87 ½ and the 1-month low is 193.02 ½. Since 1/24 April’25 Live Cattle are 7.92 ½ lower or almost 4%. The Feeders simply floated higher again today. March’25 Feeder Cattle were 4.35 higher today and settled at 272.30. Today’s high was 272.90 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 279.82 ½. Today’s low was 268.10, and the 1-month low is 263.15. Since 1/24 March’25 Feeder Cattle are 4.27 ½ lower or about 1 ½%. The Hogs continued to break again. April’25 Lean Hogs were 27 ½ cents lower today and settled at 87.40. Today’s high was 88.32 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 94.75. Today’s low was 87.32 ½ and the 1-month low is 86.35. Since 1/24 April’25 Lean Hogs are 80 cents lower or almost 1%. Don’t trade angry, it does not work out well. Patience is needed in these markets, as frustrating as they can be. The Funds suck, unless they are on your side. The selling was not there today, but I think we can see it tomorrow. The Feeders did, what the Feeders now do, when the Funds hold back from selling, they simply float higher, keeping the pressure off the Fats. It will be a dramatic break in the Feeders if what I think could happen, comes to fruition. There are now four trading days left in the month of February. I still believe the Funds would like to book some more profits before the end of the day on Friday. The Dow Jones Index dropped more than 700 points on Friday and was 250 higher when the Livestock and Grain Markets closed today but then slid 200 more points, closing just 49 points higher on the day. That is a big move that still needs to be addressed in the Cattle Markets. Tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico could throw a wrench in the Cattle Markets as well. The Funds are still very long, and sold less than 8000 contracts last week, so there is plenty to go. The Feeders are now at record high long levels, 30,000 plus contracts, with almost 2000 added last week. When the Market turns again, it is set up for a big fall. The April’25 Fats traded to within 85 cents of the 1-month low of 193.02 ½ today, and that is the level that needs to be traded through for the break to occur. Below that level is the 100-Day moving average of 192.60 ½, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 191.62 ½, and then the 200-Day moving average of 189.53 ½. I still like the 186-188 level. The March’25 Feeders were a joke today, but we will see what happens. The 1-month low of 263.15 is the trigger level for the break. March’25 Feeders closed 9.15 above that level today but was only 4.95 away on today’s lows. I like the 50-Day moving average of 266.15 ½, then the 1-month low. Below that sits the 100-Day moving average of 256.24, and just for fun the 200-Day moving average of 251.50 ½. The April’25 Hogs hit all of my levels on the way down except for the 1-month low of 86.35, and it traded to within 97 ½ cents of that level. I am not sure how much lower the April’25 Hogs will trade, but if they continue to break, the 200-Day moving average is 84.20. I put out a buy recommendation in the October’25 Hogs this morning, in the Walsh Gamma Trader. Have a good night, everyone.
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The Grain Markets were all lower today. May’25 Soybeans were 9 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1047 ½. Today’s high was 1061 and the 1-month high is 1092 ½. Today’s low was 1045 ¾ and the 1-month low is 1041 ¼. Since 1/24 May’25 Soybeans are 20 3/4 cents lower or almost 2%. The Corn market settled below 5.00. May’25 Corn was 8 cents lower today and settled at 497. Today’s high was 505 ¼ and the 1-month high is 518 ¾. Today’s low was 595 ¼ and the 1-month low is 484. Since 1/24 May’25 Corn is ½ a cent higher or fractionally higher. The Wheat Market settled below 6.00 today. May’25 Wheat was 10 ½ cents lower today and settled at 5.93 ½. Today’s high was 604 and the 1-month high is 621 ¾. Today’s low was 589 ¼ and the 1-month low is 546 ¾. Since 1/24 May’25 Wheat is 34 ¾ cents higher or more than 6%. The Grains are still overpriced and the markets showed that today. I believe we can see the Corn, Beans, and Wheat continue to drop from here. President Trump today said he is moving forward with 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. That could put more uncertainty in the Grain complex as well. In addition to that, it sounds like there could be a deal reached with the war in Ukraine, sooner than later, and that could speed up the decline in the price of Wheat. The May’25 Soybeans traded to within 4 ½ cents of the 1-month low today of 1041 ¼ and closed just 6 ¼ cents above that level. I still feel we can see the May’25 Beans trade down to and through the 1030 level. On the way it would cross the 50-Day moving average of 1036 ½, and the 100-Day moving average of 1033 ¾. The 10.00 level is a real possibility. The May’25 Corn broke through and stayed below the 5.00 level today and traded to within 11 ¼ cents of the 1-month low of 484. The May’25 Corn did not close well, settling just 1 ¾ cents above the day’s low, and only 13 cents above the 1-month low. I still feel we can see the May’25 Corn trade 480 and then down to the 460 level. Below the 1-month low sits the 50-Day moving average of 482 ¼, then it drops to the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 466 ½, the 100-Day moving average of 461 ¾, and the 200-Day moving average of 457 ¾. 450 or below is still in the cards as well. The Wheat could take the hardest hit. May’25 wheat fell through the 6.00 level and kept going today, closing at 593. ½. I still like the 580 level and then the 560 – 550 area. The 100-Day moving average is 581 ¾ and is only 11 ¾ cents away from today’s close, but on the lows, the May’25 wheat traded to within just 7 ½ cents of the 100-Day moving average. Below, is the 50-Day moving average of 568 ¾ and then the 1-month low of 546 ¾. I can’t wait for tomorrow. Have a great night.
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August’25 Natural Gas 3-Year Chart Below. I bought some Call Spreads for Customers today.
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I will be in Denver for the Commodity Classic March 1st-5th, Booth #2110. Stop by if you are there.
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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canandian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States.
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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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