2/21/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed today, with the Fats and Feeders staying positive today. The Fats had a slow day, and less than a dollar range. April’25 Live Cattle was 15 cents higher today and settled at 193.95. Today’s high was 194.50 and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 193.57 ½ and the 1-month low is 193.02 ½. Since 1/21 April’25 Live Cattle are 3.42 ½ lower or almost 2%. The Feeders settled just about in the middle of the trading range today. March’25 Feeder Cattle were 1.12 ½ higher today and settled at 267.95. Today’s high was 268.85 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 279.82 ½. Today’s low was 266.82 ½, and the 1-month low is 263.15. Since 1/21 March’25 Feeder Cattle are 60 cents higher or fractionally higher. The Hogs continued to break. April’25 Lean Hogs were 85 cents lower today and settled at 87.67 ½. Today’s high was 89.15 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 94.75. Today’s low was 87.60 and the 1-month low is 86.00. Since 1/21 April’25 Lean Hogs are 97 ½ cents higher or more than 1%. There was not much action in the Livestock Markets today. The Fats did not move much and managed to close 15 cents higher on the day. it looked like the Funds paused again today, before the Cattle on Feed report. The Funds have been selling, but they still hold most of their long position. They are still long almost 100,000 contracts, and there are only five trading days left in the month. Yesterday, the April’25 Fats traded down to within 5 cents of the 1-month low of 193.02 ½ and is currently just 92 ½ cents above that level. It will not take much to punch through that level, and if it is breached, it could look like dominos falling in a straight line. The Cash market traded below the 200 level yesterday, with 199 in Texas and 198 in Iowa, with 198’s trading today as well. The cut out was lower again as well, down 1.86 today. The dressed Cattle weights were unchanged from last week at 874 pounds, but still 40 pounds heavier than this time last year. The 5-Year average is 835 pounds. It looks like the Packers are slowing the slaughter, and retail beef purchases are at a seasonal low. With the Funds still very long, and the cash market trading lower, with lower cutouts, 40-pound heavier weights, five trading days left in the month, and all the big averages and levels bunched together starting less than a dollar way, I will remain Bearish. The 1-month low is 193.02 ½, the 100-Day moving average is 192.51, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 191.45, and the 200-Day moving average is 189.50. I still like the 186-188 area. The Feeders looked like spectators again today, waiting for the Fats to break. The March’25 Feeders had just over a 2-dollar range and settled near the middle of that range. The 1-month low in the March’25 Feeders is 263.15 and that still looks like the trigger level. When the Fats don’t break, the Feeders float higher, and there is a lot of fluff built into that market. However, if the Fats do break, it will be a fire sale in the Feeder Market. Below the 1-month low is the 100-Day moving average of 255.87, the 200-Day moving average of 251.40, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 251.36. The Hogs did what I thought and traded down to, and through the 100-Day moving average of 88.48. It looks like the Hog Market could have the 1-month low of 86.00 in its sights. if it continues lower from there, the 200-Day moving average is 84.18, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 83.70. The Dow Jones Index closed more than 700 points lower today, and that can’t be ignored by the Cattle Markets forever.
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The Grain Markets were mixed, with the Corn and Beans heading lower. May’25 Soybeans were 5 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1057 ¼. Today’s high was 1066 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1092 ½. Today’s low was 1054 ½ and the 1-month low is 1041 ¼. Since 1/21 May’25 Soybeans are 20 ½ cents lower or almost 2%. The Corn market was lower as well. May’25 Corn was 7 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 505. Today’s high was 513 ¾ and the 1-month high is 518 ¾. Today’s low was 504 ¼ and the 1-month low is 484. Since 1/21 May’25 Corn is 5 ¼ cents higher or just over 1%. The Wheat Market stayed green today. May’25 Wheat was 3 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 6.04. Today’s high was 608 and the 1-month high is 621 ¾. Today’s low was 599 ¾ and the 1-month low is 546 ¾. Since 1/21 May’25 Wheat is 32 ½ cents higher or more than 5 ½%. The Grains have been screwing around for too long, and I feel they will be heading lower very soon. The Soybeans remain overpriced. The weather in Brazil looks good for next couple of weeks, and that will help the Bean harvest, and the planting of Corn. Brazil will still have a record crop, and China prefers to buy Brazilian Beans, and they are, and will continue to be available for months. Whatever dryness levels that may exist in the Midwest, it is too early to know how much rain will or will not fall before planting. Currently there are no trade talks scheduled with the Chinese, and the Beans have not been planted yet anyway, so I don’t see a reason to rally. I like the 1030 level for starters. The 50-Day moving average is 1035 ¾ and the 100-Day moving average is 1034 ¼. I think the Corn can drop as well. I like the 480 and then the 460 Level. The 1-month low for May’25 Corn is 484 and the 50-Day moving average is 481 ½. The next level lower starts with the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 466 ½, the 100-Day moving average of 461 ½, and then the 200-Day moving average of 457 ¾. The Wheat Market did its job, but I think the run higher could be over. I like the 580 level again on the way down. The 100-Day moving average is 582. Have a great weekend.
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I will be in Denver for the Commodity Classic March 1st-5th, Booth #2110. Stop by if you are there.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
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