2/19/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed today, with the Hogs getting smoked. The Fats had a dollar and a half range today and settled right near the middle of that range. April’25 Live Cattle was 75 cents higher today and settled at 194.77 ½. Today’s high was 195.47 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 193.97 ½ and the 1-month low is 193.02 ½. Since 1/17 April’25 Live Cattle are 2.72 ½ lower or more than 1%. The Feeders broke, but did not break enough today. March’25 Feeder Cattle were 70 cents lower today and settled at 269.02 ½. Today’s high was 270.82 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 279.82 ½. Today’s low was 268.25, and the 1-month low is 263.15. Since 1/17 March’25 Feeder Cattle are 97 ½ cents higher or almost ½%. The Hogs were roasted today. April’25 Lean Hogs were 3.45 lower today and settled at 89.75. Today’s high was 92.70 and the 1-month and 52-week high is 94.75. Today’s low was 89.62 ½ and the 1-month low is 86.00. Since 1/17 April’25 Lean Hogs are 1.42 ½ higher or more than 1 ½%. It looks like the Funds took a break again today, and did not want the Live Cattle Market to slide too low too fast. The cash market has been quiet and if the packers back off until after the Cattle on Feed Report on Friday, the cash trade could drop. If the Cash Market trades below 200, it will get ugly fast. Estimates for the Cattle on Feed Report are for 1% fewer Cattle on Feed than last year, but Placements and Marketings are estimated to be 2% higher. If there are any big surprises in the Placement numbers, it could break the cash market. The March’25 Feeders were more than three dollars higher yesterday, after a New World Screwworm was found on Cattle crossing the border from Mexico. The USDA has stated that they have no intention of closing the border again, as the protocols have worked. The March’25 Feeders were 3.00 higher on 2/13 as well, so I think there could be some quick downside price movement very soon, before the rest of the real break can take place. The April’25 Fats are now $12.95 below the contract high of 207.72 ½, and I feel they will continue to move further away on their migration lower. Today’s low was just 95 cents away from the 1-month low of 193.02 ½. I feel this market is set up to move lower. I still like the 190 level and then lower from there. The 1-month low, if breached, is not far from the 100-Day moving average of 192.36. Just below that sits the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 191.62 ½, and then there is the 200-Day moving average of 189.45. I would not be shocked if most or all of those levels were taken out on the same trading day, if the break I am looking for were to occur. The gap between the 1-month low and the 200-Day moving average is only 3.57 ½. The Funds won’t stay this long forever. I think we can see the Feeders have a big move soon. I feel that the Feeders are simply waiting for the Funds to knock the Fats lower, and the Report Friday and the cash market could trigger that. The March’25 Feeders need to get below the 1-month low of 263.15 and we were there not long ago, on 2/11. I still like the 255.26 level in the March’25 Feeders, that is the 100-Day moving average. Then the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low of 251.36, and the 200-Day moving average of 251.23. The Hogs certainly followed the same pattern the Feeders made, as I alluded to last week. April’25 Hogs are now $5.00 below the contact high of 94.75 made on 2/12. I still feel the Hogs can break. Today’s low of 89.62 ½ was just 19 ½ cents above the 50-Day moving average. The 100-Day moving average is 88.37 ½. If it breaks more, then the 200-Day moving average is 84.14 ½ and the 50%retracement from the 52-week high/low is 83.70.
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The Grain Markets all slid lower today, following the Wheat down after President Trumps comment. May’25 Soybeans were 7 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 1048 ¼. Today’s high was 1064 and the 1-month high is 1092 ½. Today’s low was 1045 ¾ and the 1-month low is 1041 ¼. Since 1/17 May’25 Soybeans are 3 ½ cents higher or fractionally higher. The Corn market was lower as well. May’25 Corn was 3 ½ cents lower today and settled at 512 ¼. Today’s high was 518 ¾ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 511 and the 1-month low is 484. Since 1/17 May’25 Corn is 19 ¼ cents higher or almost 4%. The Wheat Market headed lower after President Trumps comment today. May’25 Wheat was 11 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 6.06 ½. Today’s high was 621 ¼ and the 1-month high is 621 ¾. Today’s low was 603 ½ and the 1-month low is 546 ¾. Since 1/17 May’25 Wheat is 55 ¾ cents higher or more than 10%. I purchased some April’25 Wheat Puts this morning for some Customers. This morning President Trump sent out a message about the Ukraine/Russian war, alluding to a potential end to the war, stating they are “successfully negotiating” with Russia. I would get out of any and all March’25 contracts now. The Grain were all sent lower today. I believe the Corn and Beans were following the Wheat lower. My levels in the Grains look better today with the Beans only 8 cents above the 1020 level. The Soybeans are overpriced and should continue to break, for all the same reasons I have mentioned many times. I feel the 1030 level is a good target, as the 100-Day moving average is 1035 and the 50-Day moving average is 1033 ½. The May’25 Corn made a new contract high today at 518 ¾ and then broke 6 ½ cents. I think I have seen this pattern before… I feel the Corn Market is also overpriced, and the 470 level looks good to me. The 50-Day moving average is 479, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 466 ½, the 100-Day moving average is 460, and just below there sits the 200-Day moving average of 457 ¾. The Wheat Market broke today after President Trump made it sound like negotiations with the Russians were going well to end the war in Ukraine. Wheat is a Political Grain, and breaks with stability, just as it rallied with chaos. I like the 580 level again. The 100-Day moving average is 582 ¼. The Natural Gas Market has been fantastic, and I feel it is still in the early stage of a long-term rally. There will be pullbacks in the market, but my long-term view remains very Bullish. With the big move higher the last three days, profits have been locked in for my Customers, even on a break, and I have rolled into other contract months, and are already in the money. I recommend buying the Natural Gas Market early and often. There are still good price levels in the deferred contract months. Have a great night.
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I will be in Denver for the Commodity Classic March 1st-5th, stop by if you will be there as well.
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Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 312-957-8079
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