2/14/25
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The Livestock Markets were all lower today, with the Fats losing more than 2.00 and Feeders down more than a buck and a half. The Fats closed lower today and just above the 1-month low. April’25 Live Cattle was 2.27 ½ lower today and settled at 194.25. Today’s high was 197.05 and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 194.00 and that is the new 1-month low. Since 1/14 April’25 Live Cattle are 3.70 lower or almost 2%. The Feeders broke today, but looked like they were holding back, waiting for the Fats to collapse. March’25 Feeder Cattle were 1.62 ½ lower today and settled at 266.35. Today’s high was 269.32 ½ and the 1-month high is 279.82 ½. Today’s low was 265.92 ½, and the 1-month low is 263.15. Since 1/14 March’25 Feeder Cattle are 1.12 ½ lower or almost ½ %. The Hogs continued lower today. April’25 Lean Hogs were 50 cents lower today and settled at 92.60. Today’s high was 94.32 ½ and the 1-month and 52-week high is 94.75. Today’s low was 92.32 ½ and the 1-month low is 86.00. Since 1/14 April’25 Lean Hogs are 2.10 higher or more than 2%. The Funds were back in the game today, after sitting on the sidelines yesterday. It basically did what I said it would do. The Livestock Markets are now closed until Tuesday morning, and who knows what will develop over the three-day weekend. The Funds know the secret is out, and the selling pressure could show up in a big way Tuesday morning if the Wiget sellers return and make the Funds sell faster than planned. The April’25 Fats made a new 1-month low today, and that could become a reoccurring theme. It was not a good close for the Fats either, closing just 25 cents above the new 1-month low. I feel we can see the 190 level sooner than later, and then lower. The 100-Day moving average is 192.20, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 191.62, and the 200-Day moving average is 189.37. There are two levels I like below the 200-Day, 187.82 ½ is 38.2% from the 52-week low, and 186.50 is the 13-week low. The Feeders held back from breaking as much as the Fats, but I don’t expect to see that again if the Fats continue lower. The Feeders have a long trip down in front of them, and more traders will jump on that train if there is another large move lower. The March’25 Feeders traded to within $2.77 ½ of the 1-month low of 263.15, and I feel we can see that number change next week. I still think we can see the March’25 Feeders trade down to the 255 level, and then the 250 level. The 1-month low of 263.15 now looks like the level that needs to be traded through and settled below to trigger the race lower. The 100-Day moving average is 254.61, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 251.36, and the 200-Day moving average is 251.04. It appears the Hogs did the same thing the Cattle Markets did and broke after making new contract highs. April’25 Hog are $2.15 lower after making new highs just two days ago on 2/12/25. I feel we could see the April’25 Hogs trade to 88.00 level and then down to the 84.00 level. The 50-Day moving average is 89.41, the 100-Day moving average is 88.21, the 200-Day moving average is 84.06, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 83.70.
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The Livestock Markets will be closed Monday and will not reopen until Tuesday morning.
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The Grain Markets were all higher today, with the Wheat shooting higher. March’25 Soybeans were 6 cents higher today and settled at 1036. Today’s high was 1046 ¾ and the 1-month high is 1079. Today’s low was 1029 ½ and the 1-month low is 1018 ½. Since 1/14 March’25 Soybeans are 11 ½ cents lower or more than 1%. The Corn market was higher but stalled just before 5.00. March’25 Corn was 2 ¾ cents higher today and settled at 496 ¼. Today’s high was 499 ¾ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 492 ½ and the 1-month low is 472 ½. Since 1/14 March’25 Corn is 21 ¾ cents higher or more than 4%. The Wheat Market traded over 6.00 today. March’25 Wheat was 22 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 6.00. Today’s high was 602 ¾ and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 577 ¼ and the 1-month low is 532. Since 1/14 March’25 Wheat is 53 ¾ cents higher or almost 10%. The March’25 Soybeans traded just short of Wednesdays high of 1047 and broke from there. I still do not see a reason for the Beans to rally and expect them to traded lower next week, toward the 1020 level. The 100-Day moving average is 1022 ¾, the 50-Day moving average is 1019 ½, and the 1-month low is 1018 ½. The Corn Market tried to trade at the 500 level but was unable by ¼ of a cent but did set a new 1-month high in the process. I still feel the Corn Market will turn around and head toward the 450 level. the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 456, the 100-Day moving average is 450 ¼, and the 200-Day moving average is 448 ¾. Well, the Wheat Market shot higher, as I said it looked possible for it to rally. It traded just through the 200-Day moving average of 601 ¼. If it continues to run higher, I feel the next big level higher would be 649 ¼. That is the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low. The Wheat Market has a decision to make now, sitting just above 6.00. Will we see 650 or 550 next? I don’t love it higher or lower at this point, but if the Corn and Beans do turn around and move lower, the Wheat could follow. Then again, this crazy world could send it higher. Have a great weekend.
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The Grain Markets will be closed Monday for Presidents Day but will reopen Monday night at 7:00pm central time.
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I will be in Denver for the Commodity Classic March 1st-5th, stop by if you will be there as well.
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-Bill
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