2/12/25
.
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join my email list Sign Up Now
.
.
The Livestock Markets were mixed today, with the Fats and Feeders staying in a narrow trading range. The Fats closed lower today and settled in the middle of today’s trading range. April’25 Live Cattle was 27 ½ cents lower today and settled at 195.72 ½. Today’s high was 196.45 and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 195.07 ½ and the 1-month low is 194.95. Since 1/10/25 April’25 Live Cattle are 3.75 lower or almost 2%. The Feeders settled in the green, barely, right in the middle of today’s trading range as well. March’25 Feeder Cattle were 20 cents higher today and settled at 264.97 ½. Today’s high was 265.90 and the 1-month high is 279.82 ½. Today’s low was 264.02 ½, and the 1-month low is 263.15. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Feeder Cattle are 4.42 ½ lower or almost 2%. The Hogs were higher again today. April’25 Lean Hogs were 1.35 higher today and settled at 94.32 ½. Today’s high was 94.75 and that is the new 1-month and 52-week contract high as well. Today’s low was 93.32 ½ and the 1-month low is 86.00. Since 1/10/25 April’25 Lean Hogs are 5.65 higher or more than 6%. The April’25 Fats settled exactly $12.00 below the contract high of 207.72 ½, made on 1/28/25. I do not believe the Cattle Markets are done breaking, and selling pressure could begin again tomorrow. If there is a bounce higher in the Fats or Feeders, I would take the opportunity to sell into it. I feel the April’25 Fats can trade down to the 190 level, pause, and then trade lower toward the 185-186 level. The 100-Day moving average is 191.98, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 191.62 ½, and the 200-Day moving average is 189.31. The Funds are still very long, and did not want to spook the Markets again today. They are looking for a bounce in the markets as well, so they can begin selling again. It looks like the Cattle Markets are fully aware of this, based on the narrow trading ranges and very small changes from yesterday’s prices. The March’25 Feeders look like they are ready to move lower quickly. I feel all that need to happen is a close below the 264.00 level. It has traded below 264 but has not settled below there since the end of last year, on 12/31/24, settling at 262.97 ½. I think a substantial break is possible, especially with all of the negative factors out there. Tariffs, a fully open border for Cattle from Mexico, and the obvious Record long position the Funds still need to unwind. I think we can see March’25 Feeders trade down to the 255 level and then the 250 level. If it settles below the 250 level, it could open the flood gates and break another $10.00 from there. Closing below 264 still needs to happen first, and the 50-Day moving average is 264.34, and today’s low was 264.02 ½. The 1-month low was set yesterday, when it traded down to 263.15, but it still managed to settle above 264. Down below, the 100-Day moving average is 253.97, and the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 251.36, and the 200-Day moving average is 250.90. There is still time to protect your bottom line from a potential 15.00 break lower, but not much, if it happens. Give me a call if you have questions. The April’25 Hogs made a new contract high today at 94.75, and I wonder if they will do what the Cattle Markets did…
.
.
If you would like information on opening an account, please use this link Sign Up Now only 5 account pages need to be signed.
.
.
The Grain Markets were mixed again today, with the Beans dropping close to my 1020 level. March’25 Soybeans were 15 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1027 ¾. Today’s high was 1047 and the 1-month high is 1079 ¾. Today’s low was 1024 ½ and the 1-month low is 1018 ½. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Soybeans are 2 ½ cents higher or fractionally higher. The Corn market did post a gain today. March’25 Corn was 6 ¼ cents higher today and settled at 490 ¼. Today’s high was 492 ¼ and the 1-month high is 498 ½. Today’s low was 481 ½ and the 1-month low is 469 ¼. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Corn is 19 ¾ cents higher or more than 4%. The Wheat Market was lower today. March’25 Wheat was 2 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 574 ¼. Today’s high was 584 ½ and the 1-month high is 592 ½. Today’s low was 572 ¾ and the 1-month low is 528 ½. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Wheat is 43 ½ cents higher or more than 8%. The March’25 Soybeans traded down to 1024 ½ today, and you are aware I had 1020 as my target level since the middle of last month. (You can check). That is why I use the Option Markets. I continued to buy Puts and sell Calls as the Market rallied. I did get out of most of them today as the premium returned to the Puts and covered the Calls with few trading days left in the month. It is time to start looking at the May and July Beans now. Brazil will produce a record crop this year, just how big is the question. The March’25 Corn still looks strong, but overpriced. March’25 Corn traded as high as 490 ¼ on 1/21/25 but still has not traded above $5.00. I think the Corn Market needs to break out of its current range and pick a direction. I feel lower is a more likely scenario. If it does trade higher, I would short it again at 515. Brazil is still planting Corn, and is a little behind, but it looks like the weather is going to cooperate, and they will catch up fast. There are still tariff concerns there as well. I still like the 450 Level for MAY’25 Corn as well. The March’25 Wheat has been a pain in the you know where, but it did hit my 580 level. With so much happening in the World right now, it could move 50 plus cents in any direction, even the March’25 contract, it could shoot up to 649 if things get messy. That would put April’25 and May’25 around 654 ¾. Most likely it will grind lower with the Corn. I still like the Natural Gas Market, and Soybean Oil Market, and expect them both to trade higher. If you have any questions, give me a call. Have a great night, and we will see if the Full Moon has any effect on these Markets overnight.
.
.
If you would like to receive more information on the commodity markets, please use the link to join my email list Sign Up Now
.
.
Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it.
.
.
Most Recent Walsh Gamma Trader Link Walsh Gamma Trader
.
.
-Bill
I have market commentary and option charts in
Pure Hedge – Livestock
Pure Hedge – Grain
Call for specific trade recommendations.
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Vice President
Pure Hedge Division
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
311 South Wacker Drive
Suite 540
Chicago, Illinois 60606
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.