2/10/25
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The Livestock Markets were mixed again today, with the Fats and Feeders gaining more than 1.00 to 3.00 dollars respectively. The Fats settled more than a dollar higher. April’25 Live Cattle was 1.35 higher today and settled at 198.12 ½. Today’s high was 198.70 and the 1-month and 52-week contract high is 207.72 ½. Today’s low was 196.47 ½ and the 1-month low is 195.85. Since 1/10/25 April’25 Live Cattle are 1.25 lower or more than ½%. The Feeders gained more than 3.00 today. March’25 Feeder Cattle were 3.22 ½ higher today and settled at 268.12 ½. Today’s high was 268.45 and the 1-month high is 279.82 ½. Today’s low was 264.67 ½, and the 1-month low is 264.07. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Feeder Cattle are 1.27 ½ lower or almost ½ %. The Hogs traded lower today. April’25 Lean Hogs were 52 ½ cents lower today and settled at 91.62 ½. Today’s high was 93.05 and that is the new 1-month high as well. Today’s low was 90.72 ½ and the 1-month low is 86.00. Since 1/10/25 April’25 Lean Hogs are 2.95 higher or more than 3%. It looks like there was some movement in the Cattle markets last week, and I think that will continue for a while. The Funds did start to liquidate some of their long position, but not much of it. The Funds are still long more than 150,000 contracts, and I anticipate more selling this week. Over the last nine trading sessions, April’25 Fats are down $9.15, and the Funds sold less than 7000 contracts. That should tell you what the Market can do if they get aggressive at selling. The estimated dressed cattle weight is 876 pounds, 47-Pounds more than this time last year at 826 pounds, and 41 pounds heavier than the 5-year average. I still like the 190 level for starters. The 100-Day moving average is 191.73, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 191.62 ½, and the 200-Day moving average is 189.25. The March’25 Feeders broke $10.12 ½ over the last nine trading sessions. The Funds sold less then 1000 contracts, with more to follow. More tariffs went into effect today, and we still do not know how the agricultural sector will be affected. The US Border has now been opened to Cattle from Mexico, but it sounds like it is a small trickle coming through. When it has been expanded to more or all Ports of entry, then we could see the resumption of 100,000 Cattle a month crossing the Border. I still like the 250 level in the March’25 Feeders, for starters. The 100-Day moving average is 253.34, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 251.36, and the 200-Day moving average is 250.81. Today’s low was just 60 ½ cents above the 1-month low of 264.07 and just 61 ½ cents above the 50-Day moving average. If the March’25 Feeders trade through the 264 level, the next move lower will have begun. April’25 Hogs set a new 1-month high today at 93.05 but broke from there the rest of the day. If the Cattle Markets get knocked down, I feel the Hogs will be dragged down with them. 86.00 is the 1-month low, and 83.00 looks like the next level lower from there.
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The Grain Markets were mixed today as well. The Beans ended the day unchanged. March’25 Soybeans were unchanged today and settled at 1049 ½. Today’s high was 1052 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1079 ¾. Today’s low was 1043 and the 1-month low is 1018 ½. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Soybeans are 24 ¼ cents higher or more than 2%. The Corn market was higher today. March’25 Corn was 4 cents higher today and settled at 491 ½. Today’s high was 492 ¾ and the 1-month high is 498 ½. Today’s low was 482 ¼ and the 1-month low is 469 ¼. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Corn is 21 cents higher or more than 4%. The Wheat Market traded lower today. March’25 Wheat was 3 ¼ cents lower today and settled at 579 ½. Today’s high was 586 and the 1-month high is 592 ½. Today’s low was 576 ¼ and the 1-month low is 528 ½. Since 1/10/25 March’25 Wheat is 48 ¾ cents higher or more than 9%. There is a WASDE Report tomorrow, and we will see which way these markets will move for the next couple of weeks. The March’25 Beans settled unchanged, but still below the 1050 level at 1049 ½. I still like the 1020 level, and then probably South of 10.00. The 100-Day moving average is 1023 ½, the 1-month low is 1018 ½, and the 50-Day moving average is 1016 ¼. The Brazilian crop will be very large and record setting. The March’25 Corn remains strong but still has not traded above 5.00. I still feel that we can see the Corn trade back toward the 450-460 range. The 50-Day moving average is 462 ¼, the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low is 456, the 200-Day moving average is 448 ¾, and the 100-Day moving average is 447 ¾. It looks like that 580 level in the March’25 Wheat was correct; it just took to damn long. The Wheat now has a chance to rally again, and if it does, I like the 200-Day moving average of 603, and then it could fly higher from there, as the 50% retracement from the 52-week high/low sits at 649 ¼. I am not saying it will go there, but it could. The Weekly Options are great for Report days, and if you are interested in them, let me know. I have a few ideas for tomorrow as well. I met some great people at Cattle Con, and I am looking forward to the Commodity Classic in Denver March 1st-5th. If I can answer any questions for you, just give me a call. Have a great night.
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Today’s Brazil Weather Radar Map Below.
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