10/21/23
The meats were all lower on Friday, and had a big slide down for the week. December’23 live cattle were down 0.675 on Friday and settled at 184.625, down 2.125 for the week. November’23 feeder cattle were down 2.275 Friday and settled at 242.225, down 9.350 for the week. December’23 lean hogs were down 2.000 on Friday and settled at 66.000, down 3.500 for the week. Even with the sharply lower price in the feeders last week, I feel that they are going to continue to break. In my opinion the feeders could break another 15%-20% from here. If August feeders broke another 15%, they would priced at 223.932. Next year’s prices: June’24 Live Cattle 184.375, August’24 Feeder Cattle 263.450, August’24 Lean Hogs 92.150
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 184.625 | 190C | 1.000 | $740 |
| 195C | 0.350 | $270 | |
| 200C | 0.125 | $100 | |
| 205C | 0.050 | $40 | |
| 210C | 0.025 | $10 | |
| ATM 184C 3.225 | ATM STRADDLE 5.825 | EXPIRES 12/1/23 | |
| FEB’24 187.725 | 195C | 1.925 | $1420 |
| 200C | 0.950 | $710 | |
| 205C | 0.450 | $360 | |
| 210C | 0.200 | $180 | |
| 215C | 0.025 | $90 | |
| ATM 187C 5.075 | ATM STRADDLE 9.45 | EXPIRES 2/2/24 | |
| APR’24 190.425 | 200C | 2.300 | $1530 |
| 206C | 1.175 | $840 | |
| 210C | 0.725 | $540 | |
| 216C | 0.350 | $280 | |
| 220C | 0.225 | $180 | |
| ATM 190C 6.150 | ATM STRADDLE 11.900 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 184.625 | 180P | 1.225 | $410 |
| 175P | 0.450 | $170 | |
| 170P | 0.175 | $70 | |
| 165P | 0.100 | $40 | |
| 160P | 0.050 | $20 | |
| ATM 184P 2.600 | ATM STRADDLE 5.825 | EXPIRES 12/1/23 | |
| FEB’24 187.725 | 185P | 3.500 | $1150 |
| 180P | 1.925 | $660 | |
| 175P | 1.025 | $350 | |
| 170P | 0.550 | $220 | |
| 165P | 0.300 | $130 | |
| ATM 187P4.375 | ATM STRADDLE 9.45 | EXPIRES 2/2/24 | |
| APR’24 190.425 | 186P | 4.050 | $1400 |
| 180P | 2.275 | $820 | |
| 176P | 1.175 | $570 | |
| 170P | 0.825 | $330 | |
| 166P | 0.550 | $230 | |
| ATM 190P 5.750 | ATM STRADDLE 11.900 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 |
JUNE’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 184.375 | 20% BULL MOVE | 221.250 | 220C | 0.225 |
| 184.375 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 147.500 | 148P | 0.300 |
| 184.375 | 30% BULL MOVE | 239.687 | 238C | 0.075 |
| 184.375 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 129.062 | 130P | 0.075 |
| 184.375 | 40% BULL MOVE | 258.125 | 258C | 0.025 |
| 184.375 | 40% BEAR MOVE | 110.625 | 112P | 0.025 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| NOV’23 242.225 | 255C | 0.300 | $150 |
| 260C | 0.150 | $75 | |
| 265C | 0.075 | $37.50 | |
| 270C | 0.050 | $25 | |
| 275C | 0.025 | $12.50 | |
| ATM 242C 3.100 | ATM STRADDLE 6 | EXPIRES 11/16/23 | |
| JAN’24 243.050 | 255C | 2.300 | $1,150 |
| 260C | 1.425 | $712.50 | |
| 265C | 0.875 | $437.50 | |
| 270C | 0.575 | $287.50 | |
| 275C | 0.375 | $187.50 | |
| ATM 243C 6.375 | ATM STRADDLE 12.700 | EXPIRES 1/25/24 | |
| MAR’24 245.725 | 266C | 2.375 | $1,187.50 |
| 270C | 1.800 | $900 | |
| 276C | 1.175 | $587.50 | |
| 280C | 0.900 | $450 | |
| 286C | 0.625 | $312.50 | |
| ATM 246C 8.600 | ATM STRADDLE 17.475 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| NOV’23 242.225 | 245P | 4.600 | $2,300 |
| 240P | 2.025 | $1,012.50 | |
| 235P | 0.775 | $387.50 | |
| 230P | 0.300 | $150 | |
| 225P | 0.125 | $62.50 | |
| ATM 242P 2.900 | ATM STRADDLE 6 | EXPIRES 11/16/23 | |
| JAN’24 243.050 | 245P | 7.375 | $3,687.50 |
| 240P | 4.950 | $2,475 | |
| 235P | 3.175 | $1,587.50 | |
| 230P | 1.975 | $987.50 | |
| 225P | 1.225 | $612.50 | |
| ATM 243P 6.325 | ATM STRADDLE 12.700 | EXPIRES 1/25/24 | |
| MAR’24 245.725 | 246P | 8.875 | $4,437.50 |
| 240P | 6.150 | $3,075 | |
| 236P | 4.700 | $2,350 | |
| 230P | 3.075 | $1,537.50 | |
| 226P | 2.300 | $1,150 | |
| ATM 246P 8.600 | ATM STRADDLE 17.475 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 263.450 | 20% BULL MOVE | 316.140 | 316C | 1.600 |
| 263.450 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 210.760 | 212P | 1.375 |
| 263.450 | 30% BULL MOVE | 342.485 | 342C | 0.725 |
| 263.450 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 184.415 | 186P | 0.475 |
| 263.450 | 40% BULL MOVE | 368.830 | 368C | 0.425 |
| 263.450 | 40% BEAR MOVE | 158.070 | 160P | 0.175 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 66.000 | 80C | 0.175 | $70 |
| 85C | 0.075 | $30 | |
| 90C | 0.050 | $20 | |
| 95C | 0.025 | $10 | |
| 100C | 0.025 | $10 | |
| ATM 66C 2.575 | ATM STRADDLE 5.150 | EXPIRES 12/14/23 | |
| FEB’24 70.425 | 80C | 1.175 | $470 |
| 85C | 0.600 | $240 | |
| 90C | 0.325 | $130 | |
| 95C | 0.175 | $70 | |
| 100C | 0.100 | $40 | |
| ATM 70C 4.300 | ATM STRADDLE 8.175 | EXPIRES 2/14/24 | |
| APR’24 76.900 | 90C | 1.325 | $530 |
| 96C | 0.675 | $270 | |
| 100C | 0.450 | $180 | |
| 106C | 0.250 | $100 | |
| 110C | 0.175 | $70 | |
| ATM 77C 5.175 | ATM STRADDLE 10.450 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| DEC’23 66.000 | 70P | 5.150 | $2,060 |
| 65P | 2.100 | $840 | |
| 60P | 0.650 | $260 | |
| 55P | 0.200 | $80 | |
| 50P | 0.050 | $20 | |
| ATM 66P 2.575 | ATM STRADDLE 5.150 | EXPIRES 12/14/23 | |
| FEB’24 70.425 | 70P | 3.875 | $1,550 |
| 65P | 1.925 | $770 | |
| 60P | 0.850 | $340 | |
| 55P | 0.375 | $150 | |
| 50P | 0.175 | $70 | |
| ATM 70P 3.875 | ATM STRADDLE 8.175 | EXPIRES 2/14/24 | |
| APR’24 76.900 | 76P | 4.800 | $1,920 |
| 70P | 2.475 | $990 | |
| 66P | 1.500 | $600 | |
| 60P | 0.675 | $270 | |
| 56P | 0.400 | $160 | |
| ATM 77P 5.275 | ATM STRADDLE 10.450 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 92.150 | 20% BULL MOVE | 110.580 | 110C | 1.550 |
| 92.150 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 73.720 | 74P | 1.425 |
| 92.150 | 30% BULL MOVE | 119.795 | 118C | 0.750 |
| 92.150 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 64.505 | 66P | 0.625 |
| 92.150 | 40% BULL MOVE | 129.010 | 128C | 0.325 |
| 92.150 | 40% BEAR MOVE | 55.290 | 56P | 0.175 |
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive, Walsh Trading
Phone: 312-957-8079 or 800-556-9411
Email: ballen@walshtrading.com
Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604