Pure Hedge – Livestock

10/21/23

The meats were all lower on Friday, and had a big slide down for the week. December’23 live cattle were down 0.675 on Friday and settled at 184.625, down 2.125 for the week. November’23 feeder cattle were down 2.275 Friday and settled at 242.225, down 9.350 for the week. December’23 lean hogs were down 2.000 on Friday and settled at 66.000, down 3.500 for the week. Even with the sharply lower price in the feeders last week, I feel that they are going to continue to break. In my opinion the feeders could break another 15%-20% from here. If August feeders broke another 15%, they would priced at 223.932. Next year’s prices: June’24 Live Cattle 184.375, August’24 Feeder Cattle 263.450, August’24 Lean Hogs 92.150

LIVE CATTLE CALLS

MONTH	STRIKE	PRICE	COST
DEC’23 184.625	190C	1.000	$740
	195C	0.350	$270
	200C	0.125	$100
	205C	0.050	$40
	210C	0.025	$10
	ATM 184C 3.225	ATM STRADDLE 5.825	EXPIRES 12/1/23
FEB’24 187.725	195C	1.925	$1420
	200C	0.950	$710
	205C	0.450	$360
	210C	0.200	$180
	215C	0.025	$90
	ATM 187C 5.075	ATM STRADDLE 9.45	EXPIRES 2/2/24
APR’24 190.425	200C	2.300	$1530
	206C	1.175	$840
	210C	0.725	$540
	216C	0.350	$280
	220C	0.225	$180
	ATM 190C 6.150	ATM STRADDLE 11.900	EXPIRES 4/5/24

LIVE CATTLE PUTS

MONTH	STRIKE	PRICE	COST
DEC’23 184.625	180P	1.225	$410
	175P	0.450	$170
	170P	0.175	$70
	165P	0.100	$40
	160P	0.050	$20
	ATM 184P 2.600	ATM STRADDLE 5.825	EXPIRES 12/1/23
FEB’24 187.725	185P	3.500	$1150
	180P	1.925	$660
	175P	1.025	$350
	170P	0.550	$220
	165P	0.300	$130
	ATM 187P4.375	ATM STRADDLE 9.45	EXPIRES 2/2/24
APR’24 190.425	186P	4.050	$1400
	180P	2.275	$820
	176P	1.175	$570
	170P	0.825	$330
	166P	0.550	$230
	ATM 190P 5.750	ATM STRADDLE 11.900	EXPIRES 4/5/24

JUNE’24 LIVE CATTLE

CURRENT PRICE	PRICE ACTION	PRICE AFTER MOVE	STRIKE	CURRENT PRICE
184.375	20% BULL MOVE	221.250	220C	0.225
184.375	20% BEAR MOVE	147.500	148P	0.300
184.375	30% BULL MOVE	239.687	238C	0.075
184.375	30% BEAR MOVE	129.062	130P	0.075
184.375	40% BULL MOVE	258.125	258C	0.025
184.375	40% BEAR MOVE	110.625	112P	0.025

FEEDER CATTLE CALLS

MONTH	STRIKE	PRICE	COST
NOV’23 242.225	255C	0.300	$150
	260C	0.150	$75
	265C	0.075	$37.50
	270C	0.050	$25
	275C	0.025	$12.50
	ATM 242C 3.100	ATM STRADDLE 6	EXPIRES 11/16/23
JAN’24 243.050	255C	2.300	$1,150
	260C	1.425	$712.50
	265C	0.875	$437.50
	270C	0.575	$287.50
	275C	0.375	$187.50
	ATM 243C 6.375	ATM STRADDLE 12.700	EXPIRES 1/25/24
MAR’24 245.725	266C	2.375	$1,187.50
	270C	1.800	$900
	276C	1.175	$587.50
	280C	0.900	$450
	286C	0.625	$312.50
	ATM 246C 8.600	ATM STRADDLE 17.475	EXPIRES 3/28/24

FEEDER CATTLE PUTS

MONTH	STRIKE	PRICE	COST
NOV’23 242.225	245P	4.600	$2,300
	240P	2.025	$1,012.50
	235P	0.775	$387.50
	230P	0.300	$150
	225P	0.125	$62.50
	ATM 242P 2.900	ATM STRADDLE 6	EXPIRES 11/16/23
JAN’24 243.050	245P	7.375	$3,687.50
	240P	4.950	$2,475
	235P	3.175	$1,587.50
	230P	1.975	$987.50
	225P	1.225	$612.50
	ATM 243P 6.325	ATM STRADDLE 12.700	EXPIRES 1/25/24
MAR’24 245.725	246P	8.875	$4,437.50
	240P	6.150	$3,075
	236P	4.700	$2,350
	230P	3.075	$1,537.50
	226P	2.300	$1,150
	ATM 246P 8.600	ATM STRADDLE 17.475	EXPIRES 3/28/24

AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE

CURRENT PRICE	PRICE ACTION	PRICE AFTER MOVE	STRIKE	CURRENT PRICE
263.450	20% BULL MOVE	316.140	316C	1.600
263.450	20% BEAR MOVE	210.760	212P	1.375
263.450	30% BULL MOVE	342.485	342C	0.725
263.450	30% BEAR MOVE	184.415	186P	0.475
263.450	40% BULL MOVE	368.830	368C	0.425
263.450	40% BEAR MOVE	158.070	160P	0.175

LEAN HOG CALLS

MONTH	STRIKE	PRICE	COST
DEC’23 66.000	80C	0.175	$70
	85C	0.075	$30
	90C	0.050	$20
	95C	0.025	$10
	100C	0.025	$10
	ATM 66C 2.575	ATM STRADDLE 5.150	EXPIRES 12/14/23
FEB’24 70.425	80C	1.175	$470
	85C	0.600	$240
	90C	0.325	$130
	95C	0.175	$70
	100C	0.100	$40
	ATM 70C 4.300	ATM STRADDLE 8.175	EXPIRES 2/14/24
APR’24 76.900	90C	1.325	$530
	96C	0.675	$270
	100C	0.450	$180
	106C	0.250	$100
	110C	0.175	$70
	ATM 77C 5.175	ATM STRADDLE 10.450	EXPIRES 4/12/24

LEAN HOG PUTS

MONTH	STRIKE	PRICE	COST
DEC’23 66.000	70P	5.150	$2,060
	65P	2.100	$840
	60P	0.650	$260
	55P	0.200	$80
	50P	0.050	$20
	ATM 66P 2.575	ATM STRADDLE 5.150	EXPIRES 12/14/23
FEB’24 70.425	70P	3.875	$1,550
	65P	1.925	$770
	60P	0.850	$340
	55P	0.375	$150
	50P	0.175	$70
	ATM 70P 3.875	ATM STRADDLE 8.175	EXPIRES 2/14/24
APR’24 76.900	76P	4.800	$1,920
	70P	2.475	$990
	66P	1.500	$600
	60P	0.675	$270
	56P	0.400	$160
	ATM 77P 5.275	ATM STRADDLE 10.450	EXPIRES 4/12/24

AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS

CURRENT PRICE	PRICE ACTION	PRICE AFTER MOVE	STRIKE	CURRENT PRICE
92.150	20% BULL MOVE	110.580	110C	1.550
92.150	20% BEAR MOVE	73.720	74P	1.425
92.150	30% BULL MOVE	119.795	118C	0.750
92.150	30% BEAR MOVE	64.505	66P	0.625
92.150	40% BULL MOVE	129.010	128C	0.325
92.150	40% BEAR MOVE	55.290	56P	0.175

Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive, Walsh Trading

Phone: 312-957-8079 or 800-556-9411
Email: [email protected]

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604