1/26/24
The Livestock Markets were all higher today, while the Grain dropped straight down. April’24 Live Cattle gained 0.975today and settled at 181.675, just below today’s high and the 1-month high of 182.150. Today’s low was 180.300. Since 12/26 Arril’24 Live Cattle are 8.150 higher or more than 4 ½%. The Feeders were also higher today. March’24 Feeder Cattle were 1.525 higher today and settled at 239.700. The Feeders broke almost two dollars from today’s high of 241.650. Today’s high is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 237.575. Since 12/26 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 15.300 higher or almost 7%. The continued to rally today. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.700 higher today and settled at 83.250. Today’s high of 84.000 is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 82.150, and the 1-month and 52-week low is 71.700. Since 12/24 Arpil’24 Lean Hogs have gained 7.400 or close to 10%. The Grains started their inevitable break yesterday and continued the dive lower today. March’24 Soybeans dropped 13 ¾ cents today and settled at 1209 ¼, just above today’s low of 1208 ½. Today’s high was 1230 ¾. The 1-month low is not far away at 1201. My Reasearch and Development Team notified me that the 52-week low could possibly change. Currently it is 1145 ¼. Since 12/26 March’24 Soybeans are down $1.10 ¼ or more than 8%. The Corn Market broke lower today as well. March’24 Corn was 5 ½ cents lower today and settled at 446 ¼, just above today’s low of 445 ½. Today’s high was 451 ¾. The 1-month high is 480 ¼ and the 1-month low is 436 ¾. Since 12/26 March’24 Corn is down 34 cents or over 7%. The Wheat Market was negative as well. March’24 Wheat broke 12 cents today and settled at 600 ¼. Today’s high was 614 and today’s low was 595 ¼. The 1-month low is 573 ¼. Since 12/26 March’24 Wheat is 36 cents lower or more than 5 ½%. Once again, I hope you sold into strength during the two-day Bean rally. March’24 Soybeans traded 1247 ½ just one day ago. I still feel that the Soybean Market is overpriced, and will continue to break from here, a-lot. My opinion on the Corn Market has not changed. I still feel the corn will break down with the beans toward $4.00. The Cattle Markets have continued their rally, but I feel that will be over shortly. It’s still my opinion the Cattle Markets will break soon and over the next six months. I will be at Cattle-Con in Orlando next week if you want to meet. Have a great weekend.
LIVE CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 181.675 | 185C | 2.375 | $950 |
| 190C | 1.075 | $430 | |
| 195C | 0.475 | $190 | |
| ATM 182C 3.650 | ATM STRADDLE 7.625 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 178.850 | 185C | 2.750 | $1,100 |
| 190C | 1.525 | $610 | |
| 195C | 0.825 | $330 | |
| ATM 179C 5.175 | ATM STRADDLE 10.500 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 178.625 | 190C | 2.175 | $870 |
| 196C | 1.150 | $460 | |
| 200C | 0.775 | $310 | |
| ATM 178C 6.550 | ATM STRADDLE 12.475 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
LIVE CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 181.675 | 175P | 1.425 | $570 |
| 170P | 0.625 | $250 | |
| 165P | 0.275 | $110 | |
| ATM 182P 3.975 | ATM STRADDLE 7.625 | EXPIRES 4/5/24 | |
| JUN’24 178.850 | 170P | 2.050 | $820 |
| 165P | 1.125 | $450 | |
| 160P | 0.625 | $250 | |
| ATM 179P 5.325 | ATM STRADDLE 10.500 | EXPIRES 6/7/24 | |
| AUG’24 178.625 | 170P | 2.950 | $1,180 |
| 160P | 1.075 | $430 | |
| 150P | 0.375 | $150 | |
| ATM 178P 5.925 | ATM STRADDLE 12.475 | EXPIRES 8/2/24 |
OCTOBER’24 LIVE CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 182.600 | 10% BULL MOVE | 200.860 | 200C | 1.600 |
| 182.600 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 164.340 | 166P | 1.900 |
| 182.600 | 20% BULL MOVE | 219.120 | 218C | 0.350 |
| 182.600 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 146.080 | 148P | 0.350 |
| 182.600 | 30% BULL MOVE | 237.380 | 236C | 0.125 |
| 182.600 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 127.820 | 128P | 0.050 |
FEEDER CATTLE CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 239.700 | 245C | 3.425 | $1,712.50 |
| 250C | 2.075 | $1.037.50 | |
| 255C | 1.250 | $625 | |
| ATM 240C 5.500 | ATM STRADDLE 11.300 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 245.600 | 255C | 3.950 | $1,975 |
| 260C | 2.700 | $1,350 | |
| 265C | 1.825 | $912.50 | |
| ATM 246C 7.425 | ATM STRADDLE 15.250 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 251.175 | 266C | 4.025 | $2,012.50 |
| 276C | 2.150 | $1,075 | |
| 286C | 1.200 | $600 | |
| ATM 252C 9.000 | ATM STRADDLE 18.825 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
FEEDER CATTLE PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 239.700 | 230P | 2.100 | $1,050 |
| 225P | 1.175 | $587.50 | |
| 220P | 0.675 | $337.50 | |
| ATM 240P 5.800 | ATM STRADDLE 11.300 | EXPIRES 3/28/24 | |
| APR’24 245.600 | 240P | 5.150 | $2,575 |
| 235P | 3.500 | $1,750 | |
| 230P | 2.300 | $1150 | |
| ATM 246P 7.825 | ATM STRADDLE 15.250 | EXPIRES 4/25/24 | |
| MAY’24 251.175 | 240P | 4.950 | $2,475 |
| 230P | 2.550 | $1,275 | |
| 220P | 1.200 | $600 | |
| ATM 252P 9.825 | ATM STRADDLE 18.825 | EXPIRES 5/23/24 |
AUGUST’24 FEEDER CATTLE
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 265.600 | 10% BULL MOVE | 292.160 | 292C | 4.475 |
| 265.600 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 239.040 | 240P | 4.450 |
| 265.600 | 20% BULL MOVE | 318.720 | 318C | 1.500 |
| 265.600 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 212.480 | 214P | 1.125 |
| 265.600 | 30% BULL MOVE | 345.280 | 344C | 0.650 |
| 265.600 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 185.920 | 186P | 0.200 |
LEAN HOG CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 83.250 | 90C | 1.000 | $400 |
| 95C | 0.375 | $150 | |
| 100C | 0.150 | $60 | |
| ATM 83C 3.675 | ATM STRADDLE 7.100 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 96.000 | 106C | 1.275 | $510 |
| 116C | 0.275 | $110 | |
| 126C | 0.100 | $40 | |
| ATM 96C 4.850 | ATM STRADDLE 9.700 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 96.600 | 106C | 1.625 | $650 |
| 110C | 0.950 | $380 | |
| 116C | 0.425 | $170 | |
| ATM 96C 5.525 | ATM STRADDLE 10.475 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
LEAN HOG PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| APR’24 83.250 | 75P | 1.075 | $430 |
| 70P | 0.475 | $190 | |
| 65P | 0.200 | $80 | |
| ATM 83P 3.425 | ATM STRADDLE 7.100 | EXPIRES 4/12/24 | |
| JUN’24 96.000 | 86P | 1.600 | $640 |
| 80P | 0.750 | $300 | |
| 76P | 0.450 | $180 | |
| ATM 96P 4.850 | ATM STRADDLE 9.700 | EXPIRES 6/14/24 | |
| JUL’24 96.600 | 86P | 1.725 | $690 |
| 80P | 0.825 | $330 | |
| 76P | 0.525 | $210 | |
| ATM 96P 4.950 | ATM STRADDLE 10.475 | EXPIRES 7/15/24 |
AUGUST’24 LEAN HOGS
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 95.700 | 10% BULL MOVE | 105.270 | 104C | 2.175 |
| 95.700 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 86.130 | 88P | 2.700 |
| 95.700 | 20% BULL MOVE | 114.840 | 114C | 0.600 |
| 95.700 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 76.560 | 78P | 0.875 |
| 95.700 | 30% BULL MOVE | 124.410 | 124C | 0.200 |
| 95.700 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 66.990 | 68P | 0.275 |
THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.
I have market commentary and option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock
and Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM
Call for specific trade recommendations.
1-312-957-8079
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.