Pure Hedge – Grains

Bill AllenGeneral Commentary

10/28/23

The grain markets were mixed on Friday and for the week. January’24 soybeans were 19 1/4 cents higher on Friday to regain the weeks losses, and settled at 1319 1/4, that’s 3/4 of a cent higher for the week. December’23 corn was slightly higher Friday, up 1 1/2 cents, to settle at 480 3/4, but still ended the week down 14 3/4 cents. December’23 wheat was lower for the day and for the week. December’23 wheat was down 4 cents Friday, and settled at 575 1/2, down 10 1/2 cents for the week. The grain markets have all moved lower this calendar year, and I feel that soybeans will continue to break. January’24 soybeans are 96 3/4 cents lower YTD, almost 7%. December’23 corn has declined $1.30 YTD, over 21%. December’23 wheat is sharply lower, down $2.44 3/4 YTD, a drop of almost 30%. Even though soybeans rallied Friday, I feel they will continue to break, with the corn following the soybeans lower. In my opinion there is still upside in the wheat market, especially with the turmoil in the Black Sea Region. Next year’s prices: August’24 Soybeans 1334 1/4, September’24 Corn 507 3/4, September’24 Wheat 647 3/4.

SOYBEAN CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
JAN’24 1319 1/21350C21 3/4$1,087.50
1400C 9 1/2$475
1450C4 1/8$206.25
1500C2$100
1550C1 1/8$56.25
ATM 1320C 33 3/4ATM STRADDLE 68EXPIRES 12/22/23
MAR’24 1333 1/41400C28 1/2$1,425
 1460C15 3/4$787.50
 1500C10 1/2$525
1600C4 1/4$212.50
1700C1 7/8$93.75
ATM 1340C 49 3/4ATM STRADDLE 106 1/8EXPIRES 2/23/24
JUL’24 1353 3/41440C45$2,250
1500C30 7/8$1,543.75
1600C16 5/8$831.25
1700C9 1/8$456.25
1800C5 3/8$268.75
ATM 1360C 73 1/4ATM STRADDLE 152 1/2EXPIRES 6/21/24

SOYBEAN PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
JAN’24 1319 1/21260P11 3/4$587.50
1200P3 1/4$162.50
1160P1 5/8$81.25
1100P5/8$31.25
1000P1/4$12.50
ATM 1320P 34 1/4ATM STRADDLE 68EXPIRES 12/22/23
MAR’24 1333 1/41260P22 1/2$1,125
 1200P9 1/2$475
 1160P5 1/8$256.25
1100P2 1/4$112.50
1000P3/4$37.50
ATM 1340P 56 3/8ATM STRADDLE 106 1/8EXPIRES 2/23/24
JUL’24 1353 3/41260P35 1/4$1,762.50
1200P19 1/4$962.50
1100P 6 3/8$318.75
1000P 2 1/4$112.50
900P 7/8$43.75
ATM 1360P 73 1/4ATM STRADDLE 152 1/2EXPIRES 6/21/24

AUGUST’24 SOYBEANS

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVESTRIKE CURRENT PRICE
1334 1/4 20% BULL MOVE 1601 1/8 1600C 18 3/8
1334 1/4 20% BEAR MOVE 1067 1/2 1080P 8 1/8
1334 1/4 30% BULL MOVE 1734 1/2 1720C 9 5/8
1334 1/4 30% BEAR MOVE 933 7/8 940P 2
1334 1/4 40% BULL MOVE 1867 7/8 1860C 5
1334 1/4 40% BEAR MOVE 800 1/2 800P 5/8
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

CORN CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
DEC’23 480 3/4500C3 1/2$175
520C1 1/4$62.50
560C1/4$12.50
600C1/4$12.50
640C1/8$6.25
ATM 480C 10 1/8ATM STRADDLE 19 1/2EXPIRES 11/24/23
MAR’24 495 1/4540C7 3/4$387.50
 560C4 7/8$243.75
 600C2 1/8$106.25
650C7/8$43.75
700C1/2$25
ATM 500C 19 1/2ATM STRADDLE 43 5/8EXPIRES 2/23/24
JUL’24 509 1/2550C 20 3/8$1,018.75
600C10 3/8$518.75
650C5 1/2$275
700C3 1/8$156.25
750C1 7/8$93.75
ATM 510C 34 1/4ATM STRADDLE 69EXPIRES 6/21/24

CORN PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
DEC’23 480 3/4460P2 3/4$137.50
450P1 1/2$75
440P7/8$43.75
420P1/4$12.50
400P1/8$6.25
ATM 480P 9 3/8ATM STRADDLE 19 1/2EXPIRES 11/24/23
MAR’24 495 1/4470P10 3/4$537.50
 450P5 5/8$281.25
 400P1$50
370P3/8$18.75
350P1/8$6.25
ATM 500P 25 1/8ATM STRADDLE 43 5/8EXPIRES 2/23/24
JUL’24 509 1/2470P16 7/8$843.75
450P10 7/8$543.75
430P6 3/4$337.50
400P3 1/8$156.25
350P7/8$43.75
ATM 510P 34 3/4ATM STRADDLE 69EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 CORN

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVE STRIKE CURRENT PRICE
507 3/4 20% BULL MOVE 609 1/4 600C 14 7/8
507 3/4 20% BEAR MOVE 406 3/8 410P 6 5/8
507 3/4 30% BULL MOVE 660 1/8 660C 8
507 3/4 30% BEAR MOVE 355 1/2 360P 2
507 3/4 40% BULL MOVE 710 3/4 710C 5
507 3/4 40% BEAR MOVE 304 5/8 310P 1/2
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS

WHEAT CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
DEC’23 575 1/2600C9 5/8$481.25
650C2 3/4$137.50
700C1 1/8$56.25
750C5/8$31.25
800C1/2$25
ATM 580C 16 1/8ATM STRADDLE 36.75EXPIRES 11/24/23
MAR’24 602 1/2650C22 1/4$1,112.50
 700C13 1/2$675
 750C8 1/2$425
800C5 3/4$287.50
900C2 7/8$143.75
ATM 600C 38 1/2ATM STRADDLE 74 1/2EXPIRES 2/23/24
JUL’24 633 3/4 700C33 7/8$1,693.75
750C24$1,200
800C17 1/4$862.50
900C9 5/8$481.25
1000C6$300
ATM 630C 56ATM STRADDLE 108 1/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

WHEAT PUTS

MONTHSTRI400PKEPRICECOST
DEC’23 575 1/2550P7 1/4$362.50
540P4 5/8$231.25
520P1 3/4$87.50
500P3/4$37.50
450P1/8$6.25
ATM 580P 20 5/8ATM STRADDLE 36 3/4EXPIRES 11/24/23
MAR’24 602 1/2550P13 7/8$693.75
 520P6 5/8$331.25
 500P3 3/4$187.50
450P1$50
400P1/4$12.50
ATM 600P 38 1/2ATM STRADDLE 74 1/2EXPIRES 2/23/24
JUL’24 633 3/4600P36 1/2$1,825
550P17 1/4$862.50
500P6 3/4$337.50
450P2 1/4$112.50
400P3/4$37.50
ATM 630P 52 1/4ATM STRADDLE 108 1/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 WHEAT

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVE STRIKE CURRENT PRICE
647 3/4 20% BULL MOVE 777 1/4 770C 29 1/4
647 3/4 20% BEAR MOVE 518 1/8 520P 11 1/4
647 3/4 30% BULL MOVE 842 1/8 840C 19 7/8
647 3/4 30% BEAR MOVE 453 1/2 460P 3 5/8
647 3/4 40% BULL MOVE 906 3/4 900C 14 5/8
647 3/4 40% BEAR MOVE 388 5/8 390P 5/8
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive, Walsh Trading

Phone: 312-957-8079 or 800-556-9411
Email: [email protected]

www.walshtrading.com

Walsh Trading
53 W Jackson Suite 750
Chicago, Il 60604