Pure Hedge – Grains

Bill AllenGeneral Commentary

1/26/24

The Livestock Markets were all higher today, while the Grain dropped straight down. April’24 Live Cattle gained 0.975today and settled at 181.675, just below today’s high and the 1-month high of 182.150. Today’s low was 180.300. Since 12/26 Arril’24 Live Cattle are 8.150 higher or more than 4 ½%. The Feeders were also higher today. March’24 Feeder Cattle were 1.525 higher today and settled at 239.700. The Feeders broke almost two dollars from today’s high of 241.650. Today’s high is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 237.575. Since 12/26 March’24 Feeder Cattle are 15.300 higher or almost 7%. The continued to rally today. April’24 Lean Hogs were 0.700 higher today and settled at 83.250. Today’s high of 84.000 is also the 1-month high. Today’s low was 82.150, and the 1-month and 52-week low is 71.700. Since 12/24 Arpil’24 Lean Hogs have gained 7.400 or close to 10%. The Grains started their inevitable break yesterday and continued the dive lower today. March’24 Soybeans dropped 13 ¾ cents today and settled at 1209 ¼, just above today’s low of 1208 ½. Today’s high was 1230 ¾. The 1-month low is not far away at 1201. My Reasearch and Development Team notified me that the 52-week low could possibly change. Currently it is 1145 ¼. Since 12/26 March’24 Soybeans are down $1.10 ¼ or more than 8%. The Corn Market broke lower today as well. March’24 Corn was 5 ½ cents lower today and settled at 446 ¼, just above today’s low of 445 ½. Today’s high was 451 ¾. The 1-month high is 480 ¼ and the 1-month low is 436 ¾. Since 12/26 March’24 Corn is down 34 cents or over 7%. The Wheat Market was negative as well. March’24 Wheat broke 12 cents today and settled at 600 ¼. Today’s high was 614 and today’s low was 595 ¼. The 1-month low is 573 ¼. Since 12/26 March’24 Wheat is 36 cents lower or more than 5 ½%. Once again, I hope you sold into strength during the two-day Bean rally. March’24 Soybeans traded 1247 ½ just one day ago. I still feel that the Soybean Market is overpriced, and will continue to break from here, a-lot. My opinion on the Corn Market has not changed. I still feel the corn will break down with the beans toward $4.00. The Cattle Markets have continued their rally, but I feel that will be over shortly. It’s still my opinion the Cattle Markets will break soon and over the next six months. I will be at Cattle-Con in Orlando next week if you want to meet. Have a great weekend.

-Bill

312-957-8079

SOYBEAN CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 1209 1/41250C9 1/2$475
1300C2 1/2$125
1350C7/8$43.75
ATM 1210C 24 1/8ATM STRADDLE 52EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 1216 1/41360C6 3/8$318.75
 1440C2 3/8$118.75
 1560C3/4$37.50
ATM 1220C 41 1/4ATM STRADDLE 86 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 12241400C10 1/8$506.25
1500C4 $200
1600C1 7/8$93.75
ATM 1220C 57ATM STRADDLE 110EXPIRES 6/21/24

SOYBEAN PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 1209 1/41150P6 1/4$312.50
1100P1 7/8$93.75
1050P 3/4$37.50
ATM 1210P 24 7/8ATM STRADDLE 52EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 1216 1/41100P8$400
 1060P4 1/4$212.50
 1000P 1 3/4$87.50
ATM 1220P 45ATM STRADDLE 86 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 12241100P13$650
1000P3 1/2$175
900P1$50
ATM 1220P 53ATM STRADDLE 110EXPIRES 6/21/24

AUGUST’24 SOYBEAN

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVESTRIKE CURRENT PRICE
1212 3/4 10% BULL MOVE 1334 1320C 27 1/8
1212 3/4 10% BEAR MOVE 1091 1/2 1100P 19 5/8
1212 3/4 20% BULL MOVE 1455 1/4 1440C 10
1212 3/4 20% BEAR MOVE 970 1/4 980P 4 1/4
1212 3/4 30% BULL MOVE 1576 1/2 1560C 4
1212 3/4 30% BEAR MOVE 848 7/8 860P 1 1/8
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

CORN CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 446 1/4460C3 1/8$156.25
480C3/4$37.50
500C3/8$18.75
ATM 445C 8 3/4ATM STRADDLE 16 1/4EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 455 3/4500C4 1/2$225
 550C1 1/4$62.50
 600C1/2$25
ATM 460C 15ATM STRADDLE 34 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 463 1/2500C12 3/8$618.75
550C4 7/8$243.75
600C2 1/4$112.50
ATM 460C 25 7/8ATM STRADDLE 48 3/8EXPIRES 6/21/24

CORN PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 446 1/4420P1 1/4$62.50
410P5/8 $31.25
400P1/2$25
ATM 445P 7 1/2ATM STRADDLE 16 1/4EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 455 3/4400P2 $100
 380P7/8$43.75
 360P3/8$18.75
ATM 460P 19 1/4ATM STRADDLE 34 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 463 1/2400P3 5/8$181.25
380P2$100
360P1$50
ATM 460P 22 1/2ATM STRADDLE 48 3/8EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 CORN

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVE STRIKE CURRENT PRICE
468 1/2 10% BULL MOVE 515 3/8 510C 19 1/2
468 1/2 10% BEAR MOVE 421 7/8 430P 15 1/4
468 1/2 20% BULL MOVE 562 1/4 560C 11 5/8
468 1/2 20% BEAR MOVE 374 7/8 380P 3 7/8
468 1/2 30% BULL MOVE 609 1/8 600C 6 3/8
468 1/2 30% BEAR MOVE 328 330P 7/8
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS

WHEAT CALLS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 600 1/4 630C8 1/4$412.50
650C4 3/4$237.50
670C2 7/8$143.75
ATM 600C 18 1/4ATM STRADDLE 36 1/4EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 610 3/4650C20 5/8$1031.25
 700C10 7/8$543.75
 750C5 7/8 $293.75
ATM 610C 36 ATM STRADDLE 68 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 616 1/4 700C19 1/2$975
800C8$400
900C3 7/8$193.75
ATM 620C 42ATM STRADDLE 87 3/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

WHEAT PUTS

MONTHSTRIKEPRICECOST
MAR’24 600 1/4 550P2 3/8$118.75
525P3/4$37.50
500P1/4$12.50
ATM 600P 18ATM STRADDLE 36 1/4EXPIRES 2/23/24
MAY’24 610 3/4550P9 3/8$468.75
 500P2 1/4$112.50
 450P1/2$25
ATM 610P 33 3/4ATM STRADDLE 68 1/4EXPIRES 4/26/24
JUL’24 616 1/4550P14 1/2$725
500P4 5/8$231.25
450P1 3/8$68.75
ATM 620P 45 3/4ATM STRADDLE 87 3/4EXPIRES 6/21/24

SEPTEMBER’24 WHEAT

CURRENT PRICE PRICE ACTION PRICE AFTER MOVE STRIKE CURRENT PRICE
626 1/4 10% BULL MOVE 688 7/8 680C 35
626 1/4 10% BEAR MOVE 563 5/8 570P 25 3/4
626 1/4 20% BULL MOVE 751 1/2 750C 20 5/8
626 1/4 20% BEAR MOVE 501 510P 8 7/8
626 1/4 30% BULL MOVE 814 1/8 810C 13 1/2
626 1/4 30% BEAR MOVE 438 3/8 440P 2
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.

THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.

I have Option Strike prices every Friday.

I have market commentary and Option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock

Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM 

Call for specific trade recommendations.

1-312-957-8079 

1.800.993.5449

Email me for free research. 

BAllen@walshtrading.com 

Bill Allen

Senior Account Executive

Direct:      1 312 957 8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

WALSH TRADING INC.

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Chicago, Illinois 60604

www.walshtrading.com

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