1/19/24
The Grains were mixed today. March’24 Soybeans had a 17 ¾ cent range today and settled down ¼ of a cent at 1213 ¼, not far from today’s low of 1210 ¾. The 1-month high is 1328 ¼ if you can believe that. The 1-month low is close at 1201. I noticed today that the 52-week low is 1154 ¼… Since 12/19 March’24 Soybeans are down $109.75 or over 8%. That was a quick dollar plus break, I hope you caught it as well. If you did not catch that dollar break, you need to be prepared to catch the next one, or the one after that. The Corn Market closed higher today. March’24 Corn was 1 ½ cents higher today and settled at 445 ½, 2 ½ cents above today’s low of 443. The 1-month and 52-week low is 436 ¾. Since 12/19 March’24 Corn is down 27 ¼ cents or close to 6%. The Wheat Market caught a bid today and closed higher. March’24 Wheat gained 7 ¾ cents today and settled at 593 ¼. The 1-month high is 639 ¾ and the 1-month low is 573 ¼. The 52-week low is 556 ¼. Since 12/19 March’24 Wheat is 29 ½ cents lower or close to 5%. The Cattle on Feed Report came out this afternoon and it said placements for December were 95.5% of a year ago, and December markings were 99.1% of a year ago. The January 1st on feed supply was 102.1%, compared to 102.2% expected. The report did not look very bullish or bearish. With the recent rally in the Cattle Market, I would rather be short than long over the weekend. The Soybean Market showed yet again, that selling into any strength can be beneficial. I think it’s better to sell it when you can, not when you have to. I still feel that the Cattle markets will start to head lower again next week, and the Soybeans will continue to break and drag the Corn down with it. I will be at CattleCon in Orlando on the January 30th – February 3rd. If you would like to meet there, give me a call. Maybe I see things differently, but I still see opportunity. Call me if you would like to talk about it. This Fall’s Current Prices: August’24 Soybeans 1221, September’24 Corn 468 3/4, September’24 Wheat 621.
-Bill
312-957-8079
SOYBEAN CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 1213 1/4 | 1250C | 11 1/4 | $562.50 |
| 1300C | 3 3/8 | $168.75 | |
| 1350C | 1 | $50 | |
| ATM 1210C 26 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 49 1/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 1223 | 1360C | 7 1/8 | $356.25 |
| 1440C | 2 5/8 | $131.25 | |
| 1460C | 2 1/8 | $106.25 | |
| ATM 1220C 43 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 83 1/2 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 1232 | 1400C | 11 3/8 | $568.75 |
| 1500C | 4 1/2 | $225 | |
| 1600C | 2 1/8 | $106.25 | |
| ATM 1240C 50 3/8 | ATM STRADDLE 108 5/8 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SOYBEAN PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 1213 1/4 | 1150P | 5 1/8 | $256.25 |
| 1100P | 1 3/8 | $68.75 | |
| 1050P | 1/2 | $25 | |
| ATM 1210P 23 | ATM STRADDLE 49 1/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 1223 | 1100P | 5 7/8 | $293.75 |
| 1060P | 3 | $150 | |
| 1000P | 1 1/4 | $62.50 | |
| ATM 1220P 40 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 83 1/2 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 1232 | 1100P | 10 3/8 | $518 3/4 |
| 1000P | 2 5/8 | $131.25 | |
| 900P | 3/4 | $37.50 | |
| ATM 1240P 58 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 108 5/8 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
AUGUST’24 SOYBEAN
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 1221 | 10% BULL MOVE | 1343 1/8 | 1340C | 24 3/4 |
| 1221 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 1098 7/8 | 1100P | 16 3/8 |
| 1221 | 20% BULL MOVE | 1456 1/4 | 1440C | 11 1/8 |
| 1221 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 976 3/4 | 980P | 3 1/4 |
| 1221 | 30% BULL MOVE | 1587 1/4 | 1580C | 4 |
| 1221 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 854 3/4 | 860P | 7/8 |
CORN CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 445 1/2 | 460C | 4 3/8 | $218.75 |
| 480C | 1 1/4 | $62.50 | |
| 500C | 1/2 | $25 | |
| ATM 445C 9 7/8 | ATM STRADDLE 19 1/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 456 | 500C | 5 3/4 | $287.50 |
| 550C | 1 3/4 | $87.50 | |
| 600C | 3/4 | $37.50 | |
| ATM 460C 16 3/8 | ATM STRADDLE 36 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 464 1/4 | 500C | 14 | $700 |
| 550C | 6 1/8 | $306.25 | |
| 600C | 3 | $150 | |
| ATM 460C 27 1/2 | ATM STRADDLE 50 3/4 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
CORN PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 445 1/2 | 420P | 1 7/8 | $93.75 |
| 410P | 1 | $50 | |
| 400P | 1/2 | $25 | |
| ATM 445P 9 3/8 | ATM STRADDLE 19 1/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 456 | 400P | 2 1/8 | $106.25 |
| 380P | 1 | $50 | |
| 360P | 1/2 | $25 | |
| ATM 460P 20 3/8 | ATM STRADDLE 36 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 464 1/4 | 400P | 3 7/8 | $193.75 |
| 380P | 1 7/8 | $93.75 | |
| 360P | 1 | $50 | |
| ATM 460P 23 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 50 3/4 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SEPTEMBER’24 CORN
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 468 3/4 | 10% BULL MOVE | 515 5/8 | 510C | 21 |
| 468 3/4 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 421 7/8 | 430P | 15 7/8 |
| 468 3/4 | 20% BULL MOVE | 562 1/2 | 560C | 11 5/8 |
| 468 3/4 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 375 | 380P | 4 1/8 |
| 468 3/4 | 30% BULL MOVE | 609 3/8 | 600C | 7 1/2 |
| 468 3/4 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 328 1/8 | 330P | 7/8 |
WHEAT CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 593 1/4 | 630C | 8 | $400 |
| 650C | 4 7/8 | $243.75 | |
| 670C | 3 | $150 | |
| ATM 595C 18 1/2 | ATM STRADDLE 38 3/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 603 1/2 | 650C | 19 1/4 | $962.50 |
| 700C | 10 1/4 | $512.50 | |
| 750C | 5 5/8 | $281.25 | |
| ATM 600C 36 | ATM STRADDLE 68 1/2 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 609 3/4 | 700C | 18 1/2 | $925 |
| 800C | 7 5/8 | $381.25 | |
| 900C | 3 5/8 | $181.25 | |
| ATM 610C 43 1/2 | ATM STRADDLE 87 1/4 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
WHEAT PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 593 1/4 | 550P | 3 7/8 | $193.75 |
| 525P | 1 3/8 | $68.75 | |
| 500P | 1/2 | $25 | |
| ATM 595P 20 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 38 3/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 603 1/2 | 550P | 11 3/8 | $568.75 |
| 500P | 3 | $150 | |
| 450P | 3/4 | $37.50 | |
| ATM 600P 32 1/2 | ATM STRADDLE 68 1/2 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 609 3/4 | 550P | 16 1/2 | $825 |
| 500P | 5 3/8 | $268.75 | |
| 450P | 1 1/2 | $75 | |
| ATM 610P 43 3/4 | ATM STRADDLE 87 1/4 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SEPTEMBER’24 WHEAT
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 621 | 10% BULL MOVE | 683 1/8 | 680C | 33 3/8 |
| 621 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 558 7/8 | 560P | 23 3/4 |
| 621 | 20% BULL MOVE | 745 1/4 | 740C | 21 1/4 |
| 621 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 496 7/8 | 500P | 8 |
| 621 | 30% BULL MOVE | 807 3/84 | 800C | 13 7/8 |
| 621 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 434 3/4 | 440P | 2 1/8 |
THE ABOVE PRICES REFLECT CURRENT DATE AND SETTLEMENT PRICES AND EXCLUDES THE COST OF COMMISSIONS AND FEES. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS WHEN TRADING FUTURES OR OPTIONS ON FUTURES AND EACH INVESTOR OR TRADER MUST CONSIDER WHETHER IT IS A SUITABLE INVESTMENT. PURCHASE OF LONG OPTIONS CAN RESULT IN THE LOSS OF THE ENTIRE PURCHASE PRICE PLUS COSTS.
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I have market commentary and Option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock
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Call for specific trade recommendations.
1-312-957-8079
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Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
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