12/22/23
I think the Soybeans will continue to break next week as well. Today March ‘24 Soybeans gained 4 ½ cents and settled at 1306 ¼. Today’s low of 1298 ¼ is also the 1-month low. Since 1½2 March’24 Soybeans are down 68 cents or almost 5%, and I don’t think they are done breaking yet. March’24 Corn was ½ cent higher today and settled at 473, just below the high of 474. Since 11/22 March’24 Corn is 14 ¾ cents lower or about 3%. I believe the Corn will follow the Beans lower. Wheat was also higher today. March’24 Wheat gained 3 ¾ today and settled at 616 ¼. Since 1½2 March’24 Wheat is 31 ¾ cents higher or almost 5 ½%. I still feel that we will see $11.50 Soybeans in the Summer or Fall. Here are a few reasons I am Bearish Soybeans… Turkey has asked Russia to rejoin the Black Sea Grain Deal. If that were to happen, it would be stabilizing in the Grain markets as a whole, and I only see that Bearish. I believe that more Soybeans than expected will be planted next year, with prices around $13.00 now, and that would be Bearish. With the economic changes in Argentina and the devaluing of their currency, has their Farmers selling their stocks, and if they decide to lower the 33% tax on Soybean exports sooner than later, it will also be Bearish. Along with improved weather patterns in Brazil, this is why I remain Bearish the Soybean market. I recommend hedging in July’24 Soybean now. There is always opportunity if you know where to look for it. Next Year’s Prices: August’24 Soybeans 1304 3/4, September’24 Corn 498 1/4, September’24 Wheat 645 3/4.
SOYBEAN CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 1306 1/4 | 1400C | 1/2 | $25 |
| 1450C | 1/8 | $6.25 | |
| 1500C | 1/8 | $6.25 | |
| ATM 1320C 10 7/8 | ATM STRADDLE 26 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 1316 3/4 | 1400C | 22 7/8 | $1,143.75 |
| 1440C | 15 | $750 | |
| 1500C | 8 | $400 | |
| ATM 1320C 50 3/8 | ATM STRADDLE 104 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 1322 1/2 | 1500C | 15 7/8 | $793.75 |
| 1600C | 7 1/4 | $362.50 | |
| 1700C | 3 5/8 | $181.25 | |
| ATM 1320C 65 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 128 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SOYBEAN PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 1306 1/4 | 1250P | 14 1/8 | $706.25 |
| 1200P | 5 1/2 | $275 | |
| 1150P | 2 3/8 | $118.75 | |
| ATM 1320P 14 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 26 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 1316 3/4 | 1200P | 12 5/8 | $631.25 |
| 1160P | 7 1/4 | $362.50 | |
| 1100P | 3 3/8 | $168.75 | |
| ATM 1320P 53 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 104 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 1322 1/2 | 1200P | 19 1/4 | $962.50 |
| 1100P | 5 7/8 | $293.75 | |
| 1000P | 1 7/8 | $93.75 | |
| ATM 1320P 62 3/4 | ATM STRADDLE 128 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
AUGUST’24 SOYBEAN
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 1304 3/4 | 10% BULL MOVE | 1435 1/4 | 1420C | 32 5/8 |
| 1304 3/4 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 1174 3/8 | 1180P | 23 3/8 |
| 1304 3/4 | 20% BULL MOVE | 1565 5/8 | 1560C | 12 1/4 |
| 1304 3/4 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 1043 3/4 | 1060P | 6 1/4 |
| 1304 3/4 | 30% BULL MOVE | 1696 1/8 | 1680C | 5 58 |
| 1304 3/4 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 913 3/8 | 920P | 1 1/2 |
CORN CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 473 | 500C | 4 5/8 | $231.25 |
| 530C | 1 1/2 | $75 | |
| 560C | 5/8 | $31.25 | |
| ATM 475C 12 1/8 | ATM STRADDLE 26 1/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 485 3/4 | 550C | 5 1/8 | $256.25 |
| 600C | 1 7/8 | $93.75 | |
| 650C | 7/8 | $43.75 | |
| ATM 490C 19 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 43 1/2 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 504 3/4 | 550C | 14 1/2 | $725 |
| 600C | 6 1/2 | $325 | |
| 650C | 3 1/4 | $162.50 | |
| ATM 500C 31 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 57 3/4 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
CORN PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 473 | 450P | 4 1/4 | $212.50 |
| 440P | 2 3/8 | $118.75 | |
| 430P | 1 3/8 | $68.75 | |
| ATM 475P 14 1/8 | ATM STRADDLE 26 1/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 485 3/4 | 450P | 6 7/8 | $343.75 |
| 430P | 3 1/8 | $156.25 | |
| 410P | 1 1/2 | $75 | |
| ATM 490P 25 | ATM STRADDLE 43 1/2 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 495 1/2 | 450P | 9 3/8 | $468.75 |
| 400P | 2 | $100 | |
| 350P | 3/8 | $18.75 | |
| ATM 500P 31 | ATM STRADDLE 57 5/8 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SEPTEMBER’24 CORN
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 498 1/4 | 10% BULL MOVE | 548 1/8 | 540C | 14 3/8 |
| 498 1/4 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 448 1/2 | 450P | 9 3/8 |
| 498 1/4 | 20% BULL MOVE | 597 7/8 | 590C | 6 1/2 |
| 498 1/4 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 398 3/4 | 400P | 2 |
| 498 1/4 | 30% BULL MOVE | 647 7/8 | 640C | 3 1/4 |
| 498 1/4 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 348 7/8 | 350P | 3/8 |
WHEAT CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 616 1/4 | 650C | 14 | $700 |
| 700C | 5 5/8 | $281.25 | |
| 750C | 2 5/8 | $131.25 | |
| ATM 615C 26 | ATM STRADDLE 50 3/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 627 1/2 | 700C | 17 | $850 |
| 750C | 10 | $500 | |
| 800C | 6 1/4 | $312.50 | |
| ATM 630C 37 1/8 | ATM STRADDLE 76 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 634 3/4 | 700C | 25 7/8 | $1,293.75 |
| 800C | 11 1/8 | $556.25 | |
| 900C | 5 5/8 | $281.25 | |
| ATM 630C 48 1/8 | ATM STRADDLE 91 1/2 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
WHEAT PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 616 1/4 | 550P | 3 1/4 | $162.50 |
| 525P | 1 1/4 | $62.50 | |
| 500P | 1/2 | $25 | |
| ATM 615P 24 3/4 | ATM STRADDLE 50 3/4 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 627 1/2 | 550P | 7 7/8 | $393.75 |
| 500P | 2 | $100 | |
| 450P | 1/2 | $25 | |
| ATM 630P 39 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 76 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 634 3/4 | 550P | 11 1/4 | $562.50 |
| 500P | 3 1/2 | $175 | |
| 450P | 1 | $50 | |
| ATM 630P 43 3/8 | ATM STRADDLE 91 1/2 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SEPTEMBER’24 WHEAT
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 645 3/4 | 10% BULL MOVE | 710 3/8 | 710C | 34 1/4 |
| 645 3/4 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 581 1/8 | 590P | 27 1/2 |
| 645 3/4 | 20% BULL MOVE | 774 7/8 | 770C | 22 1/2 |
| 645 3/4 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 516 3/4 | 520P | 8 1/8 |
| 645 3/4 | 30% BULL MOVE | 839 1/2 | 830C | 15 1/4 |
| 645 3/4 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 452 1/8 | 460P | 2 1/8 |
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Bill Allen
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Direct: 1 312 957 8079
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