PURE HEDGE
| CATTLE |
In my opinion with cash cattle trade developed late Thursday, with prices as much as $4 higher in the northern market. Packers are believed to be paying higher money for cash cattle going into next week. So far, cash trade has been light at slightly firmer prices compared with last week. Choice boxed beef prices firmed another $3.88, while Select rose $1.45 on Thursday. Choice beef has jumped nearly $15 since Feb. 3 and is almost $37 above the December low. Surging wholesale beef prices have improved packers’ margins significantly, giving them incentive to actively compete for a tightening supply of market-ready cattle. Producers are carrying all the risk in the cash market right now if they are not properly hedged. I am still of the opinion that, with feed costs at current prices, and all other costs being equal, $165-160 puts should be bought for breakeven operating costs for feedlots. Cow calf operators, in my opinion [and depending on other variable costs], should be looking at buying cheap $180- $190 puts to protect themselves from any downside risk. In order to take full advantage of price discovery, we must keep an astute eye on potential slaughter numbers and monthly Cattle on Feed reports. Please take a look at the below listed puts and calls, so we can have a productive conversation about hedging your beef production using real examples. Also, select the link at the bottom to use our Cattle producers’ BREAKEVEN CALCULATOR to have a more defined outlook at how you can protect your production. Keep in mind, commissions and fees are not included in the cost of the option.
LIVE CATTLE– PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| APR ($164.650s) | 165 | 2.275 | $910 |
| 162 | 1.125 | $450 | |
| 160 | .675 | $270 | |
| JUN ($160.125s) | 165 | 6.075 | $2430 |
| 162 | 4.175 | $1670 | |
| 160 | 3.150 | $1260 | |
| AUG ($159.050s) | 165 | 7.400 | $2960 |
| 162 | 5.500 | $2200 | |
| 160 | 4.450 | $1780 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
LIVE CATTLE– CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| APR ($164.650s) | 170 | .400 | $160 |
| 168 | .800 | $320 | |
| 166 | 1.475 | $590 | |
| JUN ($160.125s) | 170 | .375 | $150 |
| 168 | .625 | $250 | |
| 166 | .925 | $370 | |
| AUG ($159.050s) | 170 | .600 | $240 |
| 168 | .875 | $350 | |
| 166 | 1.275 | $510 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
FEEDER CATTLE–CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| MARCH ($186.525s) | |||
| 188 | 1.600 | $800 | |
| 190 | .975 | $487.50 | |
| 192 | .575 | $287.50 | |
| APRIL ($190.450s) | |||
| 188 | 4.650 | $2325 | |
| 190 | 3.500 | $1750 | |
| 192 | 2.550 | $1275 | |
| MAY ($194.350s) | |||
| 194 | 4.275 | $2137.50 | |
| 196 | 3.325 | $1662.50 | |
| 198 | 2.525 | $1262.50 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
FEEDER CATTLE–PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | PREMIUM COST |
| MARCH ($186.525s) | |||
| 178 | .250 | $125 | |
| 174 | .100 | $50 | |
| 170 | .050 | $25 | |
| APRIL ($190.450s) | |||
| 178 | .350 | $175 | |
| 174 | .175 | $87.50 | |
| 170 | .075 | $37.50 | |
| MAY ($194.350s) | |||
| 178 | .325 | $162.50 | |
| 174 | .175 | $87.50 | |
| 170 | .100 | $50 |
*Cost in above table does not include commissions and fees
CATTLE PRODUCERS HEDGING CALCULATOR
..\..\..\..\..\..\..\Documents\Cattle Producer calculator.xlsx
Walsh Trading, Inc. is registered as a Guaranteed Introducing Broker with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and an NFA Member.
Futures and options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Therefore, individuals should carefully consider their financial condition in deciding whether to trade. Option traders should be aware that the exercise of a long option will result in a futures position. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The information contained on this site is the opinion of the writer or was obtained from sources cited within the commentary. The impact on market prices due to seasonal or market cycles and current news events may already be reflected in market prices. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Walsh Trading, Inc. (“WTI”) shall be construed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives transaction. WTI does not distribute research reports, employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.