SOYBEANS –
Soybeans moved higher again today. Yesterday’s trading showed soybean open interest decline by nearly 5000 contracts, which signals short covering rather than new buying. Soybean CVOL, an implied volatility metric derived from option pricing, is right around last year’s weekly average. Last year soybean CVOL saw large increases in volatility heading into June. Soybean CVOL usually peaks during the middle of the year around the release of the USDA Acreage report, one of the most important USDA reports of the year.
Exports for the week ending May 15th were 322k mt, analyst estimates were between 250k-700k. This week the majority of exports are for this year compared to last weeks report which had shipments mostly for next year. Exports for the week are at 95.9% compared to the 5-year average at 95.5%. Exports for bean oil and meal were right in between analyst expectations.
In the International Grain Council report world soybean production was 428 mt with consumption up 2 mmt and 2025/26 world stocks trimmed by 2 mmt to 81 mmt.
Looking at technicals, support is at 1056, resistance is 1067.
July Soybeans (ZSN25) settled at 1067 (+4), high of 1070, low of 1051. New crop November Soybeans (ZSX25) settled at 1055 (+3). Cash price is at 1048 (+10)
July Bean Meal (ZMN25) settled at 298.5 (+4.4) high of 294.6, low of 293.7
July Bean Oil (ZLN25) settled at 49.11 (-0.72) high of 49.43, low of 47.95
The July Meal to Oil ratio (54.85% Meal – 45.15% Oil)
ZSN25 Moving Averages – (1056) 5-day, (1055) 20-day, (1041) 50-day, (1048) 100-day, (1046-0) 200-day
ZSX25 Moving Averages – (1044) 5-day, (1036) 20-day, (1024) 50-day, (1031) 100-day, (1033) 200-day
ZMN25 Moving Averages – (293) 5-day, (295) 20-day, (299) 50-day, (307) 100-day, (312) 200-day
ZLN25 Moving Averages – (49) 5-day, (49) 20-day, (47) 50-day, (46) 100-day, (44) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed soybeans Managed Money traders added 16,537 contracts to their long positions, bringing their net long total to 38,407 contracts. CIT traders were net long 151,837 contracts after increasing their already long position by 4,864 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net long 8,949 contracts, having increased their long position by 18,226 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders added 10,978 contracts to their already long position, bringing their net long total to 55,785 contracts.
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed meal Managed Money traders were net short 24,716 contracts, moving to a net short position of 102,745 contracts. CIT traders were net long 78,145 contracts after increasing their long position by 1,616 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short 90,785 contracts after increasing their long position by 4,511 contracts. Meal Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders hold a short position of 61,809 contracts.
For bean oil, the Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed Managed Money traders were net long 67,432 contracts after buying 10,694 contracts. CIT traders were net short 146,624 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders net bought 11,455 contracts, shifting their position from net short to net long with a total of 7,827 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders net bought 8,173 contracts, raising their net long position to 83,812 contracts.
CORN –
July Corn (ZCN25) settled at 463 (+2), high of 464, low of 456. New crop December Corn (ZCZ25) settled at 453 (-2). Cash price is 467 (+6)
The first NASS crop condition report comes out next Tuesday. The report is expected to show good/excellent near 75% or above as planting has gotten off to a strong start.
Yesterday, the EIA came out with ethanol production at 1.03 mb per day, up 43k from the last report, and higher by 17k over last year. Ethanol stocks came in at 24.944 mb, down 501k from last week. The EIA puts ethanol stocks at their lowest levels since January, yet up 732k from a year ago. Ethanol exports for the week were 94k barrels a day, 20k less than last week, but up 11k over last year. In 2024/2025 marketing year, about 36% of domestic corn was used in ethanol production.
Corn is at an estimated 78% planted compared to 62% a week ago and 67% last year. The average planting pace for this time of year is 73%. With planting nearing completion, the rain in the forecast is positive for crop development.
Exports for the week ending May 15th were 1.4 mt, which is at 95.8% compared to the 5-year average at 90.7%. Top buyers were Mexico, Colombia, and Japan. Planting pace is 62%, the fastest pace in four years. Yesterday, the EIA, ethanol output dropped to the lowest level in more than a year to an average of 993k barrels a day for the week ending May 9th. Corn use needs to average 100.11 mb per week to meet the USDA’s forecast. U.S. corn has a price advantage over all other countries.
ZCN25 Moving Averages – (453) 5-day, (458) 20-day, (468) 50-day, (479) 100-day, (461) 200-day
ZCZ25 Moving Averages – (446) 5-day, (445) 20-day, (449) 50-day, (454) 100-day, (448) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed that corn Managed Money traders reduced their position by 98,869, bringing their net short to 84,976 contracts. CIT traders decreased their net long position by 24,375 contracts to a long position of 332,423 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders net bought 11,118 contracts, shifting to a net short position of 310,352 contracts. Meanwhile, Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders reduced their net long position by 95,320 contracts, leaving them with a net short position of 85,224 contracts.
WHEAT –
July Chicago Wheat (ZWN25) settled at 544 (-4), with a high of 552, low of 541. September Wheat (ZWU25) settled at 560 (-3). Chicago Wheat has a cash price of 541 (+3). July KC Wheat (KEN25) settled at 540 (-0-4). July Spring Wheat (MWN25) settled at 600 (-4)
The wheat market saw some profit taking after a solid $0.50 rally since the middle of last week. With the long-weekend ahead some risk is unsurprisingly being taken off the table. The IL Wheat Association’s one day crop tour found yields much better than last year, but they also found some crop disease, like Kansas.
Chicago wheat had a close under the 50-day moving average today after closing higher yesterday. The wheat market still has several bullish factors driving the market. The US dollar was lower again today. Kansas still has crop disease affecting production. And weather problems continue out east with China facing drought and Russia experiencing frost in the Rostov region. Another huge factor is the number of shorts in this market. Funds were record short on the year in Chicago wheat and in KC.
Wheat exports for the week ending May 15th were above expectations at 868k mt at 19.2% compared to the five-year average at 12.8%. The majority of export sales being new crop sales. The EU is expected to import 9.5 million tons of wheat this year compared to 10.7 million last year as production is beginning to recover.
July Chicago wheat support is at 536, resistance is at 565.
ZWN25 Moving Averages – (538) 5-day, (532) 20-day, (548) 50-day, (564) 100-day, (580) 200-day
ZWU25 Moving Averages – (553) 5-day, (546) 20-day, (563) 50-day, (579) 100-day, (593) 200-day
KEN25 Moving Averages – (531) 5-day, (529) 20-day, (560) 50-day, (577) 100-day, (585) 200-day
MWN25 Moving Averages – (592) 5-day, (594) 20-day, (606) 50-day, (615) 100-day, (627) 200-day
The Commitments of Traders report for the week ending May 13th showed that Managed Money traders in the wheat market were net short 126,895 contracts, having increased their short position by 13,161 contracts. Wheat CIT traders reached a long position of 37,016 contracts, though they increased their long position by 2,469 contracts. Non-Commercial No CIT traders were net short 115,529 contracts after net selling 11,369 contracts. Non-Commercial & Non-Reportable traders were also net short, holding 119,198.