The April WTI (CLJ25) trading session settled at 68.37 (-1.39) [-1.99%], a high of 70.60, a low of 67.89. Cash price is at 69.73 (-0.63), while open interest for CLJ25 is at 273,690. CLJ25 settled below its 5 day (69.21), below its 20 day (70.92), below its 50 day (71.85), below its 100 day (70.37), below its 200 day (71.32) and below its year-to date (72.40) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 2/25/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -223,559 (a decrease in short positions by +15,515 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +196,923 (a decrease in long positions by -21,878 from the previous week)
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Bloomberg reported that OPEC+ is set to begin its April oil output increase, however OPEC+ officials signaled that the return could be flexible, with temporary pausing or reversing increases based on market conditions. Currently OPEC+ is holding back 2.2 million barrels per day, the current plan is to gradually add 120,000 b/d starting in April. In total the 2.2 million b/d cut is just a fraction of the total 5.85 million b/d cut the Cartel has been withholding since 2022, which is about 5.7% of global supply.
President Trump confirmed that he plans to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian and Mexican imports, including a 10% slap on Canadian energy products, set to begin tomorrow. Trump also reiterated that reciprocal tariffs would begin on April 2nd. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum and Canada’s Prime Minister Trudeau have both previously said that they plan on applying counter tariffs on the United States. Per Bloomberg, the U.S. imports roughly 4 million barrels per day from Canada, and accounts for more than half of America’s total yearly imports, while the U.S. accounts for about a third of Canada’s total crude oil exports. Per USAfacts.org, Mexico accounts for about 11% of America’s total petroleum exports and 11% of the United States’ total crude oil imports.
President Trump said today he plans to add another 10% levy to all Chinese exports into the United States, bringing the total levies to 20%. On Friday China accused Trump of economic “blackmail” and today China said they would apply new measures based on Trump’s new levy announcements. Previously China placed a 10% levy on U.S. crude oil. According to EIA data, the U.S. sent China 195,000 barrels per day in November 2024. China’s policymakers will gather for the National People’s Congress this week, with market participants anxious to hear if new stimulus measures will be announced. Caixans private survey reading showed China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 50.8 in February, up from January’s 50.1, and rose to its highest level in 11 months. Saturday China’s National Bureau of Statistics said China’s factory activity grew at the fastest rate since November. China’s Shanghai 300 Index declined -0.04% today.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes U.S. oil rig count declined by 2 rigs. Tomorrow Saudi Aramco will report earnings, the American Petroleum Institute will release its weekly figures, and President Trump will host a televised unofficial “State of the Union” address to a Joint Session of Congress. On Wednesday the U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its weekly report.
The S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indexes all finished lower, while the U.S. Dollar Index closed lower by -0.99%.
Price Thoughts – To the downside there is support near/below that $67.50 and below that $65 has been a major support figure over the last year. To the upside there’s resistance near $70, above that $74.50 and the upper $79.50 region. Longer term I think we are still leaning more into the $65-$80 range rather than the $70-$85 range for 2025 for WTI. All in all, volatility and headline driven trade I don’t see ending anytime soon.
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Jim Rinaudo
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