The April WTI (CLJ25) trading session settled at 67.68 (+1.43) [+2.16%], a high of 67.88, a low of 66.15. Cash price is at (), while open interest for CLJ25 is 185,630. CLJ25 settled above its 5 day (66.67), below its 20 day (69.23), below its 50 day (71.55), below its 100 day (70.07), below its 200 day (71.06) and below its year-to date (71.59) moving averages. The COT report (Futures and Options Summary) as of 3/4/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -209,828 (a decrease in short positions by +13,731 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +184,222 (a decrease in long positions by -12,701 from the previous week)
June’25 Brent Crude contract settled at 70.45 (+1.40) [+2.03%]
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Today’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly report showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by +1.448 million barrels over the previous week, against a forecast of a +2mb build,U.S. oil inventories are about 5% lower than their five year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of -343,000 barrels per day from the previous week’s report. U.S. oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day last week, a +321,000 bpd increase from the previous week’s report. Refineries operated at 86.5% capacity last week U.S. gasoline inventories had a large draw of -5.7 million barrels, outperforming a forecast of a -1.9 million barrel draw. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by -6 million barrels last week.
In an interview with Reuters, Canada’s Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said yesterday “When we are talking about non-tariff retaliation, it could be about restricting supply, it could be putting our own export duties on products. It could be energy and minerals, it could be broader than that,” Canada, the number one supplier of imported crude oil to the U.S., provides roughly 4 million barrels per day. This afternoon Canada announced they would impose 25% reciprocal tariffs, covering about $21 billion worth of U.S. goods, including steel and aluminum products. Mark Carney is set to replace Justin Trudeau as Canada’s next Prime Minister. Carney said his administration would keep on U.S. tariffs “until the Americans show us respect”. In the past Carney has voiced his support to expand Canada’s energy output, with both “green” policies and traditional oil and natural gas projects.
OPEC released new February data showing the Cartel had a +363,000 barrels per day increase in production. OPEC kept its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast unchanged (+1.45 million barrels per day, total oil demand 105.2 million barrels per day) Last week OPEC officials confirmed that their April oil output increase would go on as scheduled, although they added that the return could be flexible, saying “Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions. This flexibility will allow the group to continue to support oil market stability.” Currently OPEC is holding back 2.2 million barrels per day, the current plan is to gradually add 138,000 b/d starting in April.
In the EIA’s monthly short-term energy outlook report the group said “Significant uncertainty remains in our price forecast. The impact of existing sanctions on Russia and recently announced sanctions on Iran, as well as the revocation of licenses for Venezuela oil exports, have increased oil price volatility in recent weeks while markets and trade patterns adjust. Additionally, the extent to which OPEC+ adheres to announced production increases will be a key factor for oil prices in the coming months” and “Global oil markets will remain relatively tight through the middle of 2025 before gradually shifting to oil inventory builds later this year. We expect global oil inventories will fall in the second quarter of 2025 (2Q25) in part due to decreasing crude oil production in Iran and Venezuela.”
The European Union announced it would place counter tariffs on 26 billion euros worth of U.S. goods from next month. The European Commission said it remained open to negotiations.
The American Petroleum Institute announced that U.S. oil executives will meet with President Trump at the White House next week.
Ukraine Officials said they would support the United States’ proposal for a 30-day ceasefire with Russia. Reuters, citing Russian sources, say President Putin is not likely to agree to the current proposal.
A new refinery in China, Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, is set to begin partial operations by the end of March, potentially boosting Chinese crude imports. The refinery is expected to process 200,000 barrels per day, according to Reuters sources with knowledge of the refiner’s operation. The Washington Post reported that China and the Trump Administration have discussed a potential summit between the two nations in June. China’s Shanghai 300 Index declined -0.36% today.
Speaking to the Financial Times, U.S. Energy Secretary Wright stated that it would take $20 billion over several years to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to full capacity. The SPR is currently at its lowest level in decades. Wright said he also believes that U.S. shale producers could remain profitable even if oil prices were to drop to $50 per barrel.
Yesterday the U.S. Dollar Index fell to 2025 lows, erasing all of its post-Trump election gains, and the lowest level since this past October. The Dollar Index currently sits near 103.58.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes Rig Count showed oil rigs staying the same as the prior week, year-over-year oil rigs are down 18.
Price Thoughts – Crude settled above its short term resistance of $67, it will have to be seen if a new range repositions itself between $67-$70, or if bearish sentiment breaks us back into our $65-$67 range WTI has been trading in over the past week. The debate continues over the impact of Trump’s tariffs and recession fears. Last week set the seventh consecutive weekly loss for WTI, which is the longest streak since November 2023.
$65 has been a major support figure over the last year. To the upside there’s still resistance in the $67 handle, above that $70, above that $74.50. Longer term I think we are still leaning more into the $65-$75 range rather than the $70-$80 range for 2025 for WTI.
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Jim Rinaudo
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