The May WTI (CLK25) contract settled at 61.50 (+1.43) [+2.38%], high of 61.87, low of 59.43. Spot price is 60.17 (-2.08) Open interest for CLK25 is 187,095. CLK25 settled above its 5 day (60.86), below its 20 day (66.60), below its 50 day (68.28), below its 100 day (69.33), below its 200 day (69.97) and below its year-to date (69.68) moving averages.
The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 64.76 (+1.43) [+2.26%], high of 65.05, low of 62.76. Spot Brent price is 63.41 (-1.95). QAM25 settled above its 5 day (64.11), below its 20 day (69.93), below its 50 day (71.53), below its 100 day (72.56), below its 200 day (73.66) and below its year-to-date (72.80) moving averages.
Last Friday’s COT report (Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/1/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -195,602 (a decrease in short positions by 13,286 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +185,522 (a decrease in long positions by 11,539 from the previous week)
China overnight raised their tariffs on imports of US goods to 125%. On Wednesday, the White House placed a 90-day pause on the original reciprocal tariff rate, while reducing reciprocal tariffs to 10%, excluding current tariff rates on Mexico and Canada, and finally increased tariffs on Chinese goods to 125% (this was upped to 145% yesterday) effective immediately. Over the last few days, the Chinese Yuan has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar since 2007.
Sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports to China will surge in the month of May, with Saudi Aramco set to ship about 48 million barrels, up from April’s 35.5 million barrels. This is the highest amount of Saudi exports into China since at least 2024, according to Reuters data.
Today’s Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs decreased by 9 rigs, to a total of 480. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, to a total of 97.
This week’s U.S. Energy Information Administration data for the week ending April 4, showed U.S. crude oil inventories increased by +2.6 million barrels from the previous week, above forecasts of a +1.4 million barrel build, to a total of 442.3 million barrels, which are about 5% below the 5-year seasonal average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, a decrease of 277,000 barrels per day from the prior week, and 6.9% less than the same four-week period last year. U.S. crude refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 69,000 barrels per day more than the prior week. Refineries operated at 86.7% capacity. Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels per day, down -1.9% from the same period last year. Total commercial petroleum inventories expanded by +1.2 million barrels last week. The Cushing, Oklahoma hub had a build of +636,000 barrels. This marks the second week in a row of an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration decreased its global oil demand growth forecast for this year today. The EIA sees growth of 900,000 barrels per day, down from the previously estimated 1.2 million barrels per day. For 2026, the forecast was downgraded to 1.1 million barrels per day, lowered from the earlier estimate of 1.2 million barrels per day.
The Keystone pipeline is still offline after a spill on Tuesday caused a shutdown. After declaring force majeure, South Bow Corp. said the situation had been contained and the incident caused an estimated loss of approximately 3,500 barrels. This is the third spill since 2017. On a daily basis the Keystone XL pipeline carries about 626,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
SPX: 5,363.36 (+1.81%) DIJA: 40,212.71 (+1.56%) NDX: 16,724.46 (+2.06%) DXY: 99.86 (-1%)
FTSE100: (+0.64%) DAX: (-0.92%) CSI300: (+0.41%) HSI: (+1.13%) NIKKEI: (-2.96%)
Price Thoughts – Nice recovery day for crude and the broader markets after crude prices gave back two dollars on Thursday, sure this may have been contributed by some short covering but technically $59 has held as a support price for WTI, which had been tested a few times over this week’s trading sessions. Crude has been heavily influenced by the broader U.S. indices movement and tariff headlines over the last two weeks, which in my opinion is here to stay until some stability becomes priced in, and it should be noted that the Dollar Index broke below $100. As for the fundamentals I believe it shows a tight supply/demand picture in the near term, and futures prices are still showing an inverse market out in the further dated months for both Brent and WTI. Have a good weekend and I’ll see ya Monday.
Technically short-term resistance is $63, above that $65. New short term support is in the low $59 to $58 range, below that there’s support in the $56 handle. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost and the weekly EIA reports to a lesser degree.
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Jim Rinaudo
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