The June WTI (CLM25) contract settled at 64.01 (+2.18) [+3.53%], high of 64.18, low of 61.96. Spot price is 62.49 (+1.15). Open interest for CLM25 is 317,061. CLM25 settled above its 5 day (61.71), below its 20 day (65.17), below its 50 day (67.17), below its 100 day (68.68), below its 200 day (69.37) and below its year-to date (168.8) moving averages.
The June Brent Crude (QAM25) contract settled at 67.96 (+2.11) [+3.20%], high of 68.13, low of 65.95. Spot Brent price is 65.86 (+1.19). QAM25 settled above its 5 day (65.62), below its 20 day (68.97), below its 50 day (70.86), below its 100 day (72.30), below its 200 day (73.36) and below its year-to-date (72.43) moving averages.
Last Friday’s COT report (Net Futures and Options Summary) as of 4/11/25 showed commercials with a net short position of -184,638 (a decrease in short positions by 10,964 from the previous week) and non-commercials who are net long +169,107 (a decrease in long positions by 16,415 from the previous week)
Oil rose for the second consecutive day after the US once again pledged to cut Iran’s energy exports to zero. Yesterday, the US Treasury announced new sanctions on a Chinese teapot refinery accused of funneling over $1 billion worth of Iranian oil. Alongside the refinery, the US also imposed sanctions on a Chinese terminal operator and eight vessels tied to the “shadow fleet” transporting Iranian oil. According to data from Vortexa, Iranian crude shipments to China grew to a record 1.8 million barrels per day in March. China’s crude oil imports rose in March, up nearly 5% year-over-year, driven by a surge in Iranian oil and Russian shipments, according to data released Monday. Imports hit 12.1 million barrels per day, marking the highest level since August 2023, based on Reuters’ analysis of customs data. This was up from 11.55 million bpd in March 2024 and 10.38 million bpd during the January-February period. For the first quarter overall, crude imports reached 10.97 million bpd, down 1.5% from the same period last year.
China is turning to Canada for oil as US imports have plunged. Chinese refiners ramped up imports of Canadian crude to a record 7.3 million barrels in March, with April on pace to go even higher, data from Vortexa shows. China’s purchases of US oil are down nearly 90% from the June peak of 29 million barrels to just 3 million per month.
Eight members of OPEC+ who have exceeded voluntary production quotas, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and the UAE will have to compensate for 4.57 million bpd in overproduction, the compensation plans stipulate that the eight members must offset all above-quota output by June of next year. Last month the eight OPEC+ countries jointly agreed to raise production starting in May by 411,000 bpd. OPEC data published today showed that the total backlog of overdue compensation cuts has increased by about 139 million barrels (9%). Iraq said they plan on cutting their April production by 70,000 bdp to comply with quotas.
This week OPEC reduced its forecast for oil demand growth for the first time since December in their monthly outlook report, OPEC now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels a day for 2025 and 1.28 million bpd for 2026. This is down from 1.45 million bpd for 2025 and 1.43 million bpd for 2026. OPEC’s report also showed that crude production by the wider OPEC+ fell in March by 37,000 bpd to a total of 41.02 million barrels.
In its monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global oil supply to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, which is 260,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate, citing lower output expectations from the United States. “The sharp decline in oil prices has shaken the U.S. shale sector, with companies indicating they require an average price of $65 per barrel to drill new light tight oil wells profitably,” the IEA said. In 2026, the IEA expects global supply to grow by 960,000 bpd. On the demand side, the IEA forecasts global oil demand to rise by 730,000 bpd in 2025, down from the 1.03 million bpd from last month.
Yesterday’s US Energy Information Administration for the week ending April 11, 2025 showed US commercial crude oil inventories had a build of +515,000 barrels, bringing inventories to a total of 442.9 million barrels, seasonally inventories are about 6% lower than the 5-year average. U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6 million barrels per day, imports fell by -189,000 bpd compared to the week prior. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.6 million bdp, a -64,000 bdp decrease from the previous week. Crude refineries operated at 86.3% capacity. Domestic oil production increased from 13.458 million bdp to 13.462 million bdp. Total commercial petroleum inventories fell by -2.1 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased by +300,000 barrels. This marks the third consecutive week of U.S. inventory builds.
Last Friday’s Baker Hughes Rig Count showed U.S. oil rigs decreased by 9 rigs, to a total of 480. U.S. gas rigs increased by 1, to a total of 97. Total rig counts declined for the third consecutive week.
Price Thoughts – Crude oil markets finished with a weekly gain and both Brent and WTI benchmarks were able to clear their short-term resistance prices. For those readers who celebrate it, have a Happy Easter.
Technically short-term resistance is $63 (which we settled above to the upside today) and the $59 handle is supportive in the front months for WTI, while Brent has traded in a range of $67 (which we settled above to the upside) and $61. As I always say, this market is currently heavily influenced by the headlines first and foremost, and the weekly U.S. EIA reports to a lesser degree.
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