Now What? : September Soybean Complex

John Lunney General Commentary

September Soybeans

     Beans chopped higher in today’s session. After initially reacting off the 998  level touched on in Thursday’s report market  presses above to post high just shy targeted resistance of 1005.6 slipping in day session to finish at 1000. For me structural clues are non-apparent in today’s price action. If the market dips here it will find support at roughly 990. This marks the .618 retracement commonly seen in 2nd wave corrective moves. Holding below won’t look good. I’d be expecting a follow through to targeted projection level between 963 – 956. On the upside, a rise from here or a a hold and advance off 990 level will target +/- 1015. A close above 1025 would point to a further gains extending in impulsive fashion to +/- 1065.


September Meal 

     Similar action in the meal market plays out in today’s action. I’m not confident in labeling yesterday’s low as a b wave extreme (a-b-c sequence). More information needs to be made available. Market finds support at +/- 321. A  hold beneath should bring further selling pressure. Slipping below 318 threatens to unravel. Downside target comes in at +/- 311. Establishing value above today’s high, which held up at channel resistance will look to advance. Next overhead target checks in at 331.5-332.5. Closing above sets stage for further upside action targeting +/- 350.


September Oil

     Overnight action sees oil contract press higher to fail at 34.33 shy of targeted resistance level at 34.60. Very sloppy overlapping price structure in place from the rally stemming from the lows seen in early June. One could label this a completed leading diagonal in Elliott terms. What this would lead me to believe is that a non-impulsive corrective pullback is due. A violation of 33.60 triggers dip to 33.40-33.30. A hold below here sets up further declines extending to +/- 32.55 cross zone support and Fibonacci retracement level convergence. Any upside action will meet resistance at +/- 34.60. A close above looks to extend to 35.30-35.50.